UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8). McGregor is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

McGregor is rated at 1573 — 153 points above Aldo's 1420. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is McGregor's striker game against Aldo's all-rounder approach. McGregor brings a versatile approach, while Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGregor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Conor McGregor over Jose Aldo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McGregor at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has McGregor at 48% implied while our model sees 52% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight championship matchup features Luke Rockhold (6-4) taking on Chris Weidman (12-7).

Rockhold is rated at 1302 — 242 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weidman throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Rockhold has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Weidman over Luke Rockhold. We're leaning Weidman here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 44% for Rockhold, but our model sees only 31%. That 13-point gap favoring Weidman is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Yoel Romero (9-3) taking on Jacare Souza (9-6).

Romero is rated at 1613 — 426 points above Souza's 1187. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Romero's striker game against Souza's wrestler approach. Romero brings a versatile approach, while Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romero throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacare Souza over Yoel Romero. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Souza at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Gunnar Nelson (10-5).

Maia carries a modest Elo edge (1371 to 1310), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Demian Maia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nelson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 956 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Holloway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Jeremy Stephens. The model is firm on this one: Holloway at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 83% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Frankie Saenz (5-4).

Faber is rated at 1297 — 409 points above Saenz's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Faber's wrestler game against Saenz's striker approach. Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Saenz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saenz throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saenz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Urijah Faber over Frankie Saenz. The model is firm on this one: Faber at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (0-2). Jones-Lybarger is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1206 — 457 points above Jones-Lybarger's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Jones-Lybarger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger. The model is firm on this one: Pennington at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 73% implied while our model sees 80% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-7) taking on Colby Covington (12-4).

Covington is rated at 1630 — 736 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alves's knockout artist game against Covington's wrestler approach. Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Colby Covington over Warlley Alves. The model gives Covington a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Leonardo Santos (7-2-1) taking on Kevin Lee (11-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Santos.

Lee is rated at 1197 — 158 points above Santos's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Leonardo Santos. The model is firm on this one: Lee at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Magomed Mustafaev (3-1) taking on Joe Proctor (4-3).

Mustafaev is rated at 1151 — 204 points above Proctor's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Proctor throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Proctor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Proctor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Mustafaev over Joe Proctor. The model is firm on this one: Mustafaev at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Mustafaev at 77% implied while our model sees 83% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Yancy Medeiros (6-7) taking on John Makdessi (11-8). Medeiros is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Medeiros at 999, Makdessi at 989. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Medeiros's submission artist game against Makdessi's striker approach. Medeiros is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Makdessi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Makdessi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yancy Medeiros over John Makdessi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Medeiros at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Medeiros at 39% implied while our model sees 54% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Marcio Alexandre Junior (0-2).

McGee is rated at 1037 — 222 points above Junior's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcio Alexandre Junior over Court McGee. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Junior at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.