UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Paige VanZant (5-3).

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 383 points above VanZant's 1038. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. VanZant throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. VanZant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paige VanZant over Rose Namajunas. We're leaning VanZant here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 42% for Namajunas, but our model sees only 33%. That 9-point gap favoring VanZant is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Jim Miller (27-17). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 277 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiesa throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Jim Miller. The model gives Chiesa a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Chiesa at 55% implied while our model sees 65% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Sage Northcutt (5-2) taking on Cody Pfister (1-2).

Northcutt is rated at 1249 — 408 points above Pfister's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Northcutt throws significantly more leather — a 20.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Northcutt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 12.3 more per 15 minutes. Northcutt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sage Northcutt over Cody Pfister. The model is firm on this one: Northcutt at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Elias Theodorou (8-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Santos at 1292, Theodorou at 1270. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Theodorou has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Theodorou throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Theodorou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Thiago Santos. We're leaning Theodorou here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on John Howard (7-6). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Howard carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Howard's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Howard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over John Howard. The model is firm on this one: Means at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Means at 78% implied while our model sees 87% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-4-1) taking on Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1).

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 207 points above Moraes's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akhmedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Sergio Moraes. The model gives Akhmedov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4) taking on Kevin Casey (1-2-1). Junior is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Junior is rated at 1144 — 249 points above Casey's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Kevin Casey. The model is firm on this one: Junior at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Johnny Eduardo (3-4).

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 811 points above Eduardo's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sterling looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Eduardo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sterling the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Eduardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Johnny Eduardo. The model is firm on this one: Sterling at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Sterling at 83% implied while our model sees 91% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Andreas Stahl (0-1).

Ponzinibbio is rated at 1177 — 348 points above Stahl's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ponzinibbio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Stahl has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio over Andreas Stahl. We're leaning Ponzinibbio here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Roberts (7-6) taking on Nathan Coy (1-1). Roberts is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Coy carries a modest Elo edge (950 to 906), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Coy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Coy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Roberts over Nathan Coy. We're leaning Roberts here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Roberts at 58% implied while our model sees 67% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Zubaira Tukhugov (5-2-1) taking on Phillipe Nover (1-5). Nover will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tukhugov is rated at 1132 — 366 points above Nover's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tukhugov's striker game against Nover's wrestler approach. Tukhugov brings a versatile approach, while Nover looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tukhugov throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Tukhugov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Tukhugov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov over Phillipe Nover. We're leaning Tukhugov here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Tukhugov, but our model sees only 68%. That 6-point gap favoring Nover is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Kailin Curran (1-5) taking on Emily Kagan (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Curran at 736, Kagan at 760. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curran throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Curran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Curran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kailin Curran over Emily Kagan. The model is firm on this one: Curran at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Curran at 75% implied while our model sees 87% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.