UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
Thursday, December 10, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's StrawweightMISS
Rose Namajunas won by Submission (R5)
Namajunas 33%67% VanZant
CONFIDENTMarket: 42% (-9.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -224(favors VanZant)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors VanZant)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors VanZant)
LightweightHIT
Michael Chiesa won by Submission (R2)
Chiesa 65%35% Miller
LEANMarket: 55% (+9.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Chiesa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Chiesa)
LightweightHIT
Sage Northcutt won by Submission (R2)
Northcutt 86%14% Pfister
STRONGMarket: 87% (-1.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +149(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: +20.9(favors Northcutt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +12.3(favors Northcutt)
MiddleweightMISS
Thiago Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 33%67% Theodorou
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (+0.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -53(favors Theodorou)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Theodorou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Theodorou)
WelterweightHIT
Tim Means won by KO/TKO (R2)
Means 87%13% Howard
STRONGMarket: 78% (+8.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +252(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Howard)
WelterweightMISS
Sergio Moraes won by KO/TKO (R3)
Moraes 42%58% Akhmedov
LEANMarket: 44% (-2.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -61(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Akhmedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Akhmedov)
Middleweight
Junior 76%24% Casey
STRONGMarket: 76% (+0.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +249(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Junior)
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Submission (R2)
Sterling 91%9% Eduardo
STRONGMarket: 83% (+7.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Sterling)
WelterweightHIT
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ponzinibbio 68%32% Stahl
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +118(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Ponzinibbio)
WelterweightHIT
Danny Roberts won by Submission (R1)
Roberts 67%33% Coy
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Coy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Coy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Coy)
FeatherweightHIT
Zubaira Tukhugov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tukhugov 68%32% Nover
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-6.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +346(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Tukhugov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Tukhugov)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Kailin Curran won by Submission (R2)
Curran 87%13% Kagan
STRONGMarket: 75% (+12.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -148(favors Kagan)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Curran)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Curran)