UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Saturday, September 26, 2015·Saitama, Japan·10 fights
Model: 6/9(67%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✗✓✓✓✗✓✓✗
Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Josh Barnett won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Barnett 72%28% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-1.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +227(favors Barnett)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Barnett)
MiddleweightMISS
Uriah Hall won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hall 33%67% Mousasi
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -261(favors Mousasi)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Hall)
FlyweightHIT
Kyoji Horiguchi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Horiguchi 86%14% Camus
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+8.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +204(favors Horiguchi)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Horiguchi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Horiguchi)
BantamweightHIT
Takeya Mizugaki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mizugaki 69%31% Roop
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +163(favors Mizugaki)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Mizugaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Roop)
FeatherweightHIT
Diego Brandao won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brandao 70%30% Kikuno
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +187(favors Brandao)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Kikuno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Brandao)
Featherweight
Hirota 54%46% Ishihara
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 72% (-18.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -179(favors Ishihara)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Hirota)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Hirota)
Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Keita Nakamura won by Submission (R3)
Nakamura 27%73% Jingliang
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (-0.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -370(favors Jingliang)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Jingliang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Nakamura)
LightweightHIT
Nick Hein won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hein 86%14% Kasuya
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+9.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +143(favors Hein)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Hein)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Hein)
LightweightHIT
Kajan Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 88%12% Kotani
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+14.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +345(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Johnson)
WelterweightMISS
Shinsho Anzai won by KO/TKO (R3)
Anzai 44%56% Zapata
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 51% (-7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -191(favors Zapata)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.2(favors Anzai)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Anzai)