UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Saturday, September 26, 2015·Saitama, Japan
Model Record: 6/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Josh Barnett won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Barnett 63%37% Nelson
LEANMarket: 74% (-11.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +215(favors Barnett)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Barnett)
MiddleweightMISS
Uriah Hall won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hall 33%67% Mousasi
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -212(favors Mousasi)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Hall)
FlyweightHIT
Kyoji Horiguchi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Horiguchi 88%12% Camus
STRONGMarket: 78% (+10.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +188(favors Horiguchi)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Horiguchi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Horiguchi)
BantamweightHIT
Takeya Mizugaki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mizugaki 73%27% Roop
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+4.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +151(favors Mizugaki)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Mizugaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Roop)
FeatherweightHIT
Diego Brandao won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brandao 75%25% Kikuno
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+6.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +156(favors Brandao)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Kikuno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Brandao)
Featherweight
Hirota 57%43% Ishihara
LEANMarket: 72% (-15.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Ishihara)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Hirota)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Hirota)
WelterweightMISS
Keita Nakamura won by Submission (R3)
Nakamura 21%79% Jingliang
STRONGMarket: 28% (-7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -277(favors Jingliang)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Jingliang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Nakamura)
LightweightHIT
Nick Hein won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hein 88%12% Kasuya
STRONGMarket: 76% (+12.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +91(favors Hein)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Hein)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Hein)
LightweightHIT
Kajan Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 87%13% Kotani
STRONGMarket: 73% (+13.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +256(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Johnson)
WelterweightMISS
Shinsho Anzai won by KO/TKO (R3)
Anzai 47%53% Zapata
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-4.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -128(favors Zapata)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.2(favors Anzai)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Anzai)