UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux
Saturday, August 8, 2015·Nashville, Tennessee, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Glover Teixeira won by Submission (R3)
Teixeira 34%66% Preux
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Teixeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Preux)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dariush 53%47% Johnson
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+12.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -118(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Dariush)
MiddleweightHIT
Derek Brunson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brunson 86%14% Alvey
STRONGMarket: 78% (+7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Brunson)
HeavyweightHIT
Jared Rosholt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rosholt 71%29% Johnson
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+0.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Rosholt)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Johnson)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Amanda Nunes won by Submission (R1)
Nunes 50%50% McMann
TOSS-UPMarket: 30% (+20.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +149(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors McMann)
FlyweightHIT
Ray Borg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borg 75%25% Herrera
STRONGMarket: 80% (-4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +193(favors Borg)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Borg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Borg)
MiddleweightHIT
Uriah Hall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hall 67%33% Bamgbose
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +145(favors Hall)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Hall)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Camozzi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Camozzi 67%33% Watson
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+10.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -131(favors Watson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Watson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Watson)
FlyweightHIT
Dustin Ortiz won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ortiz 85%15% Gates
STRONGMarket: 79% (+5.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +70(favors Ortiz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Ortiz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Ortiz)
BantamweightMISS
Frankie Saenz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Saenz 48%52% Kakai
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-1.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +176(favors Saenz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Saenz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Kakai)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jonathan Wilson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Wilson 55%45% Dempsey
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-4.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +20(favors Wilson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Dempsey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Dempsey)
BantamweightMISS
Marlon Vera won by Submission (R2)
Vera 44%56% Salazar
LEANMarket: 54% (-10.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -36(favors Salazar)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Salazar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Salazar)
LightweightHIT
Scott Holtzman won by Submission (R3)
Holtzman 85%15% Christodoulou
STRONGMarket: 88% (-2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +87(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Christodoulou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Christodoulou)