UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Thales Leites (12-8). Leites will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 346 points above Leites's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Leites's wrestler approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Thales Leites. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bisping at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12).

Dunham is rated at 1019 — 170 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dunham's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Dunham is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Evan Dunham. The model gives Pearson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Dunham at 32% implied while our model sees 39% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Duffy (4-3) taking on Ivan Jorge (2-1).

Duffy carries a modest Elo edge (958 to 926), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duffy throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Duffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Duffy over Ivan Jorge. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Duffy at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8).

Wood is rated at 1101 — 197 points above Casey's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 7.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanne Wood over Cortney Casey. We're leaning Wood here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Wood, but our model sees only 70%. That 6-point gap favoring Casey is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Pawel Pawlak (1-1).

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 698 points above Pawlak's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pawlak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Pawel Pawlak. The model is firm on this one: Edwards at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 76% implied while our model sees 85% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Stevie Ray (6-4) taking on Leonardo Mafra (1-2).

Ray is rated at 1193 — 330 points above Mafra's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ray throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mafra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Mafra has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stevie Ray over Leonardo Mafra. We're leaning Ray here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ray at 65% implied while our model sees 69% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Paddy Holohan (3-1) taking on Vaughan Lee (3-4). Holohan is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Holohan at 1041 versus Lee at 891. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Holohan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paddy Holohan over Vaughan Lee. We're leaning Holohan here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ilir Latifi (9-6) taking on Hans Stringer (1-1).

Latifi is rated at 1195 — 356 points above Stringer's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stringer throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stringer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Latifi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ilir Latifi over Hans Stringer. We're leaning Latifi here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Mickael Lebout (1-1) taking on Teemu Packalen (1-2). Packalen is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lebout at 991 versus Packalen at 844. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lebout throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Packalen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Packalen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Teemu Packalen over Mickael Lebout. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Packalen at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Lebout at 46% implied while our model sees 50% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Robert Whiteford (2-2) taking on Paul Redmond (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Whiteford at 959 versus Redmond at 833. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whiteford throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Whiteford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Whiteford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whiteford over Paul Redmond. The model gives Whiteford a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-3) taking on Marcus Brimage (4-3). Brimage will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rivera is rated at 1277 — 470 points above Brimage's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rivera's all-rounder game against Brimage's striker approach. Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brimage brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brimage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over Marcus Brimage. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rivera at 53% implied while our model sees 62% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4) taking on Chris de la Rocha (1-2). Rocha is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Omielanczuk is rated at 960 — 160 points above Rocha's 800. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omielanczuk throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Omielanczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Omielanczuk over Chris de la Rocha. The model gives Omielanczuk a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Omielanczuk at 59% implied while our model sees 64% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.