UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero
Saturday, June 27, 2015·Hollywood, Florida, USA·9 fights
Model: 7/9(78%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R3)
Romero 64%36% Machida
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEANMarket: 37% (+26.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +137(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Romero)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Romero)
WelterweightHIT
Lorenz Larkin won by KO/TKO (R2)
Larkin 75%25% Ponzinibbio
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+8.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -235(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Larkin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Ponzinibbio)
MiddleweightHIT
Antonio Carlos Junior won by Submission (R3)
Junior 66%34% Gordon
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +173(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Gordon)
MiddleweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 70%30% Bosse
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+5.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +143(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bosse)
FeatherweightHIT
Hacran Dias won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dias 69%31% Makashvili
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +187(favors Dias)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Dias)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.8(favors Makashvili)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Oliveira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oliveira 92%8% Merritt
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+13.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +232(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Oliveira)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Leandro Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 67%33% Gonzalez
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+3.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +16(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Silva)
WelterweightMISS
Tony Sims won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sims 35%65% Montgomery
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 49% (-13.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Montgomery)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Montgomery)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Montgomery)
BantamweightMISS
Sirwan Kakai won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kakai 48%52% Martinez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +279(favors Kakai)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Martinez)