UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero
Saturday, June 27, 2015·Hollywood, Florida, USA
Model Record: 7/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R3)
Romero 59%41% Machida
LEANMarket: 37% (+22.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Romero)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Romero)
WelterweightHIT
Lorenz Larkin won by KO/TKO (R2)
Larkin 69%31% Ponzinibbio
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+3.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Larkin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Ponzinibbio)
MiddleweightHIT
Antonio Carlos Junior won by Submission (R3)
Junior 68%32% Gordon
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +101(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Gordon)
MiddleweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 75%25% Bosse
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+9.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +95(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bosse)
FeatherweightHIT
Hacran Dias won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dias 56%44% Makashvili
LEANMarket: 64% (-7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +100(favors Dias)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Dias)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.8(favors Makashvili)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Oliveira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oliveira 93%7% Merritt
STRONGMarket: 78% (+14.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +118(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Oliveira)
WelterweightHIT
Leandro Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 73%27% Gonzalez
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -37(favors Gonzalez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Silva)
WelterweightMISS
Tony Sims won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sims 37%63% Montgomery
LEANMarket: 49% (-12.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Montgomery)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Montgomery)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Montgomery)
BantamweightMISS
Sirwan Kakai won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kakai 47%53% Martinez
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +191(favors Kakai)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Martinez)