UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Jessica Penne (3-5).

Jedrzejczyk is rated at 1192 — 389 points above Penne's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Penne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Jessica Penne. The model is firm on this one: Jedrzejczyk at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Tatsuya Kawajiri (3-2) taking on Dennis Siver (11-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Siver at 1214 versus Kawajiri at 1092. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kawajiri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Siver over Tatsuya Kawajiri. The model gives Siver a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 39% for Kawajiri, but our model sees only 35%. That 4-point gap favoring Siver is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Peter Sobotta (4-5) taking on Steve Kennedy (0-1).

Sobotta is rated at 1083 — 288 points above Kennedy's 795. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sobotta throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Kennedy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Peter Sobotta over Steve Kennedy. The model gives Sobotta a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Nick Hein (4-3) taking on Lukasz Sajewski (0-2). Sajewski is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hein at 818, Sajewski at 792. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hein throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sajewski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lukasz Sajewski over Nick Hein. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sajewski at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Hein, but our model sees only 46%. That 14-point gap favoring Sajewski is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Makwan Amirkhani (7-6) taking on Masio Fullen (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Amirkhani at 965 versus Fullen at 863. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amirkhani throws significantly more leather — a 42.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fullen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Amirkhani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Makwan Amirkhani over Masio Fullen. We're leaning Amirkhani here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Mairbek Taisumov (7-1) taking on Alan Patrick (5-3).

Taisumov is rated at 1362 — 500 points above Patrick's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Taisumov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Taisumov's striker game against Patrick's wrestler approach. Taisumov brings a versatile approach, while Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patrick throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Taisumov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Taisumov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mairbek Taisumov over Alan Patrick. We're leaning Taisumov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Taisumov at 60% implied while our model sees 67% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Alan Omer (0-1).

Allen is rated at 1468 — 626 points above Omer's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omer throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Omer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Omer over Arnold Allen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Omer at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 37% implied while our model sees 46% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Noad Lahat (2-1) taking on Niklas Backstrom (1-1).

Lahat carries a modest Elo edge (919 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Backstrom throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lahat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Lahat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niklas Backstrom over Noad Lahat. The model is firm on this one: Backstrom at 76%. The market implies 33% for Lahat, but our model sees only 24%. That 9-point gap favoring Backstrom is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Scott Askham (2-3) taking on Antonio Dos Santos (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Askham at 890 versus Santos at 749. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Askham over Antonio Dos Santos. We're leaning Askham here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Magomed Mustafaev (3-1) taking on Piotr Hallmann (2-3).

Mustafaev is rated at 1151 — 269 points above Hallmann's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hallmann throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hallmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Mustafaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Piotr Hallmann over Magomed Mustafaev. The model gives Hallmann a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Mustafaev, but our model sees only 38%. That 14-point gap favoring Hallmann is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Taylor Lapilus (5-2) taking on Yuta Sasaki (4-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Sasaki.

Lapilus is rated at 1238 — 230 points above Sasaki's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lapilus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sasaki looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sasaki the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lapilus throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lapilus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lapilus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yuta Sasaki over Taylor Lapilus. The model gives Sasaki a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lapilus at 28% implied while our model sees 45% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.