UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11).

Henderson is rated at 1404 — 231 points above Boetsch's 1174. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Henderson brings a versatile approach, while Boetsch is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Boetsch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Dan Henderson. The model gives Boetsch a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-7) taking on Matt Mitrione (9-4). Mitrione will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mitrione at 1200 versus Rothwell at 1080. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Ben Rothwell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mitrione at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Rothwell at 37% implied while our model sees 47% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7). Medeiros will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 682 points above Medeiros's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Medeiros has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Yancy Medeiros. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Poirier, but our model sees only 60%. That 4-point gap favoring Medeiros is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Brian Ortega (8-4) taking on Thiago Tavares (10-6-1).

Ortega is rated at 1490 — 367 points above Tavares's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ortega is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tavares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortega is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Brian Ortega. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tavares at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ortega at 39% implied while our model sees 50% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Anthony Birchak (2-3) taking on Joe Soto (3-4). Birchak is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Soto is rated at 963 — 155 points above Birchak's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Birchak's striker game against Soto's submission artist approach. Birchak brings a versatile approach, while Soto is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Birchak throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Birchak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 14.1 more per 15 minutes. Birchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Birchak over Joe Soto. We're leaning Birchak here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Birchak at 37% implied while our model sees 67% — a 30-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Francisco Rivera (4-5) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 260 points above Rivera's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rivera's all-rounder game against Caceres's knockout artist approach. Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Caceres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Rivera over Alex Caceres. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shawn Jordan (6-3) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 202 points above Jordan's 1164. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jordan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jordan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Jordan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shawn Jordan over Derrick Lewis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jordan at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Brian Ebersole (5-2).

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 238 points above Ebersole's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Akhmedov's all-rounder game against Ebersole's striker approach. Akhmedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ebersole brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akhmedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Ebersole has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Ebersole over Omari Akhmedov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ebersole at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Akhmedov, but our model sees only 47%. That 8-point gap favoring Ebersole is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Wade (4-2) taking on Christos Giagos (6-7).

Wade is rated at 1133 — 193 points above Giagos's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wade throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Giagos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Wade over Christos Giagos. We're leaning Wade here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Wade at 61% implied while our model sees 66% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Proctor (4-3) taking on Justin Edwards (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Proctor at 947 versus Edwards at 798. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Proctor's knockout artist game against Edwards's wrestler approach. Proctor is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Proctor throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Proctor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Proctor over Justin Edwards. We're leaning Proctor here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Proctor at 66% implied while our model sees 74% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jake Collier (5-8) taking on Ricardo Abreu (1-0).

Abreu is rated at 998 — 205 points above Collier's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abreu throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Abreu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Collier over Ricardo Abreu. The model gives Collier a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Collier at 37% implied while our model sees 59% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jose Quinonez (5-3) taking on Leonardo Morales (0-1).

Quinonez carries a modest Elo edge (882 to 805), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinonez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinonez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Quinonez over Leonardo Morales. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Quinonez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Quinonez at 38% implied while our model sees 51% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.