UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
Saturday, June 6, 2015·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightMISS
Dan Henderson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Henderson 26%74% Boetsch
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENTMarket: 36% (-9.8% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Boetsch)
HeavyweightMISS
Ben Rothwell won by Submission (R1)
Rothwell 42%58% Mitrione
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 37% (+5.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -51(favors Mitrione)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Mitrione)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Rothwell)
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R1)
Poirier 68%32% Medeiros
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+3.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Poirier)
FeatherweightHIT
Brian Ortega won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ortega 55%45% Tavares
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+16.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -317(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.3(favors Ortega)
BantamweightHIT
Anthony Birchak won by KO/TKO (R1)
Birchak 70%30% Soto
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (+33.4% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -237(favors Soto)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Birchak)
→Takedown rate advantage: +14.1(favors Birchak)
BantamweightHIT
Francisco Rivera won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rivera 55%45% Caceres
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-0.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +164(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Rivera)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Shawn Jordan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jordan 58%42% Lewis
Over/UnderUnder 64%
Under 64%Over 36%
LEANMarket: 51% (+6.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Jordan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Jordan)
WelterweightMISS
Omari Akhmedov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Akhmedov 49%51% Ebersole
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-6.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -221(favors Ebersole)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Akhmedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Akhmedov)
LightweightHIT
Chris Wade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wade 66%34% Giagos
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+4.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +284(favors Wade)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Wade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Wade)
LightweightHIT
Joe Proctor won by Submission (R3)
Proctor 74%26% Edwards
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+8.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +195(favors Proctor)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Proctor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Edwards)
MiddleweightHIT
Jake Collier won by Decision - Split (R3)
Collier 63%37% Abreu
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 37% (+26.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -424(favors Abreu)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Abreu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Collier)
BantamweightMISS
Jose Quinonez won by Submission (R1)
Quinonez 38%62% Morales
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 38% (-0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Quinonez)