UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
Saturday, May 30, 2015·Goiania, Goias, Brazil
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Carlos Condit won by KO/TKO (R2)
Condit 59%41% Alves
LEANMarket: 69% (-9.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -58(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Alves)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R3)
Oliveira 68%32% Lentz
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-1.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Lentz)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 53%47% Noons
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -252(favors Noons)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Noons)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Noons)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Francimar Barroso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barroso 36%64% Jimmo
LEANMarket: 29% (+6.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Jimmo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Jimmo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Barroso)
LightweightMISS
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 19%81% Parke
STRONGMarket: 33% (-14.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Parke)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Parke)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Parke)
WelterweightHIT
Darren Till won by KO/TKO (R2)
Till 57%43% Marques
LEAN
→Elo gap: +149(favors Till)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.0(favors Marques)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Marques)
Featherweight
Jason 56%44% Jackson
LEANMarket: 64% (-8.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Jason)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Jason)
FlyweightHIT
Jussier Formiga won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Formiga 61%39% Reis
LEANMarket: 57% (+3.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Reis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Reis)
WelterweightHIT
Nicolas Dalby won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dalby 67%33% Santos
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-7.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Santos)
FeatherweightHIT
Mirsad Bektic won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bektic 76%24% Martins
STRONGMarket: 74% (+2.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Martins)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Martins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Bektic)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Juliana Lima won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lima 69%31% Almeida
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +20(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Lima)
WelterweightHIT
Tom Breese won by KO/TKO (R1)
Breese 53%47% Dutra
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Dutra)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Dutra)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Dutra)