UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Condit (9-9) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). Condit is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Condit is rated at 1165 — 265 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Condit over Thiago Alves. The model gives Condit a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 69% for Condit, but our model sees only 59%. That 9-point gap favoring Alves is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 687 points above Lentz's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Lentz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Nik Lentz. We're leaning Oliveira here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on KJ Noons (2-2). Oliveira will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 887), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noons throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Noons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Noons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over KJ Noons. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Francimar Barroso (4-3) taking on Ryan Jimmo (3-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Barroso at 961, Jimmo at 974. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jimmo throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barroso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Barroso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Jimmo over Francimar Barroso. The model gives Jimmo a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barroso at 29% implied while our model sees 36% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Norman Parke (5-2-1).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 228 points above Parke's 1101. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trinaldo's all-rounder game against Parke's striker approach. Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Parke brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parke throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Parke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Parke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norman Parke over Francisco Trinaldo. The model is firm on this one: Parke at 81%. The market implies 33% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 19%. That 15-point gap favoring Parke is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Darren Till (6-4-1) taking on Wendell Oliveira Marques (0-1).

Till is rated at 1296 — 521 points above Marques's 775. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marques throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Marques is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Till has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Till over Wendell Oliveira Marques. The model gives Till a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Rony Jason (4-3) taking on Damon Jackson (6-5-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Jackson.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jason at 1010, Jackson at 1039. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jason throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jason is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Jason has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rony Jason over Damon Jackson. The model gives Jason a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Jason, but our model sees only 56%. That 9-point gap favoring Jackson is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-6) taking on Wilson Reis (7-5).

Formiga carries a modest Elo edge (1149 to 1083), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reis throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jussier Formiga over Wilson Reis. The model gives Formiga a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Formiga at 57% implied while our model sees 61% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1).

Dalby is rated at 1283 — 242 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dalby's striker game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Dalby brings a versatile approach, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nicolas Dalby over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. We're leaning Dalby here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Dalby, but our model sees only 67%. That 7-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Mirsad Bektic (6-3) taking on Lucas Martins (3-3). Martins is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Martins at 1095 versus Bektic at 1010. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Bektic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bektic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martins throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bektic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Bektic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Lucas Martins. The model is firm on this one: Bektic at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Juliana Lima (3-3) taking on Ericka Almeida (0-1).

Lima carries a modest Elo edge (901 to 851), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Juliana Lima over Ericka Almeida. We're leaning Lima here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Tom Breese (5-2) taking on Luiz Dutra (0-1).

Breese is rated at 1141 — 269 points above Dutra's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dutra throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dutra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Breese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Breese over Luiz Dutra. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Breese at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Breese, but our model sees only 53%. That 4-point gap favoring Dutra is worth watching.