UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Urijah Faber (11-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Faber at 1297 versus Edgar at 1185. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Urijah Faber. The model is firm on this one: Edgar at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Edgar at 81% implied while our model sees 89% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Constantinos Philippou (6-3). Mousasi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 582 points above Philippou's 1179. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Mousasi's all-rounder game against Philippou's striker approach. Mousasi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Philippou brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mousasi throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Philippou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Constantinos Philippou. We're leaning Mousasi here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on Luke Barnatt (3-2). Barnatt is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Munoz at 1082 versus Barnatt at 962. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barnatt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Munoz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnatt throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Barnatt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Munoz over Luke Barnatt. The model gives Munoz a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Munoz at 42% implied while our model sees 64% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Hyun Gyu Lim (3-3). Magny will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 395 points above Lim's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Magny's wrestler game against Lim's knockout artist approach. Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lim is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lim throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Hyun Gyu Lim. We're leaning Magny here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 53% implied while our model sees 73% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Phillipe Nover (1-5) taking on Yui Chul Nam (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nam at 890 versus Nover at 767. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nam throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nover has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yui Chul Nam over Phillipe Nover. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nam at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nover at 39% implied while our model sees 49% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Levan Makashvili (1-1) taking on Mark Eddiva (1-2).

Makashvili is rated at 994 — 159 points above Eddiva's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eddiva throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Eddiva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Makashvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Levan Makashvili over Mark Eddiva. The model is firm on this one: Makashvili at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Makashvili at 78% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jon Tuck (4-4) taking on Tae Hyun Bang (2-2). Tuck is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Tuck carries a modest Elo edge (1006 to 951), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuck throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Bang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Tuck over Tae Hyun Bang. We're leaning Tuck here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Tuck at 58% implied while our model sees 68% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Kajan Johnson (4-2) taking on Zhang Lipeng (2-1). Johnson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1168 — 253 points above Lipeng's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Lipeng over Kajan Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lipeng at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 51% for Johnson, but our model sees only 46%. That 5-point gap favoring Lipeng is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Dhiego Lima (4-6). Lima is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 328 points above Lima's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dhiego Lima over Li Jingliang. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lima at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Jingliang at 41% implied while our model sees 48% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Guangyou Ning (2-1) taking on Royston Wee (2-0). Wee is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ning at 1004, Wee at 990. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ning throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ning has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Royston Wee over Guangyou Ning. The model gives Wee a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jon Delos Reyes (1-2) taking on Roldan Sangcha'an (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Reyes at 880 versus Sangcha'an at 758. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Sangcha'an has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Delos Reyes over Roldan Sangcha'an. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Reyes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Yao Zhikui (1-2) taking on Nolan Ticman (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Zhikui at 857, Ticman at 854. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhikui throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ticman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ticman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yao Zhikui over Nolan Ticman. The model gives Zhikui a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.