UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
Saturday, May 9, 2015·Adelaide, South Australia, Australia·12 fights
Model: 7/12(58%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by KO/TKO (R5)
Miocic 82%18% Hunt
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+13.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Miocic)
MiddleweightMISS
Robert Whittaker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Whittaker 46%54% Tavares
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+2.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Whittaker)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Sean O'Connell won by KO/TKO (R1)
O'Connell 51%49% Perosh
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+8.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -189(favors Perosh)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors O'Connell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Perosh)
LightweightMISS
James Vick won by Submission (R1)
Vick 49%51% Matthews
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+12.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +137(favors Vick)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Matthews)
FeatherweightMISS
Dan Hooker won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hooker 41%59% Hioki
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Hioki)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Hioki)
WelterweightHIT
Kyle Noke won by Decision - Split (R3)
Noke 56%44% Webb
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 52% (+4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +81(favors Noke)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Noke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Noke)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alvey 85%15% Kelly
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+7.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +20(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Kelly)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Bec Rawlings won by Submission (R1)
Rawlings 67%33% Ellis
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +38(favors Rawlings)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Rawlings)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Ellis)
MiddleweightHIT
Brad Scott won by Submission (R2)
Scott 66%34% Andrews
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (+17.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +170(favors Scott)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Scott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Andrews)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Alex Chambers won by Submission (R3)
Chambers 34%66% Curran
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (+2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +26(favors Chambers)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Chambers)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Curran)
WelterweightHIT
Brendan O'Reilly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
O'Reilly 64%36% Grujic
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 47% (+17.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +107(favors O'Reilly)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Grujic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Grujic)
FlyweightMISS
Ben Nguyen won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nguyen 48%52% Ozkilic
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+12.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +126(favors Nguyen)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Ozkilic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Ozkilic)