UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Saturday, April 25, 2015·Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Model Record: 10/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Submission (R5)
Johnson 86%14% Horiguchi
STRONGMarket: 87% (-1.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +365(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Johnson)
Catch WeightHIT
Quinton Jackson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jackson 58%42% Maldonado
LEANMarket: 70% (-12.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Maldonado)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Maldonado)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Jackson)
MiddleweightMISS
Michael Bisping won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bisping 47%53% Dollaway
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Dollaway)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Dollaway)
Catch WeightHIT
John Makdessi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Makdessi 57%43% Campbell
LEANMarket: 60% (-2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +140(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Campbell)
BantamweightHIT
Thomas Almeida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almeida 89%11% Jabouin
STRONGMarket: 79% (+9.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Jabouin)
WelterweightHIT
Patrick Cote won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cote 57%43% Riggs
LEANMarket: 67% (-10.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Cote)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Cote)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Riggs)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Alexis Davis won by Submission (R2)
Davis 31%69% Kaufman
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-3.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +15(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.3(favors Kaufman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Davis)
LightweightHIT
Chad Laprise won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Laprise 81%19% Barberena
STRONGMarket: 78% (+2.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Laprise)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Laprise)
LightweightHIT
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won by Submission (R3)
Aubin-Mercier 87%13% Michaud
STRONGMarket: 77% (+10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +40(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Michaud)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Michaud)
WelterweightHIT
Nordine Taleb won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taleb 75%25% Clements
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +44(favors Taleb)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Clements)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Taleb)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Valerie Letourneau won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Letourneau 70%30% Rakoczy
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+10.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +196(favors Letourneau)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors Letourneau)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rakoczy)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Randa Markos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Markos 61%39% Daly
LEANMarket: 71% (-10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -179(favors Daly)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Daly)