UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (1603 to 1528), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Both fighters bring momentum: Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one, while Horiguchi has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Horiguchi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Johnson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Horiguchi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Kyoji Horiguchi. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Catch Weight matchup features Quinton Jackson (7-5) taking on Fabio Maldonado (5-5).

Jackson is rated at 1296 — 253 points above Maldonado's 1043. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jackson's striker game against Maldonado's all-rounder approach. Jackson brings a versatile approach, while Maldonado is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quinton Jackson over Fabio Maldonado. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Jackson, but our model sees only 58%. That 12-point gap favoring Maldonado is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on CB Dollaway (11-8).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 557 points above Dollaway's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Dollaway's all-rounder approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Dollaway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Michael Bisping. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dollaway at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Shane Campbell (1-3). Campbell is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Makdessi is rated at 989 — 201 points above Campbell's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Campbell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Campbell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Makdessi over Shane Campbell. The model gives Makdessi a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Thomas Almeida (5-4) taking on Yves Jabouin (5-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Almeida at 951 versus Jabouin at 845. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jabouin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Almeida over Yves Jabouin. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Almeida at 79% implied while our model sees 89% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-10) taking on Joe Riggs (5-6). Cote will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cote is rated at 1221 — 379 points above Riggs's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cote's striker game against Riggs's wrestler approach. Cote brings a versatile approach, while Riggs looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cote throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Riggs has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cote over Joe Riggs. The model gives Cote a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Cote, but our model sees only 57%. That 10-point gap favoring Riggs is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alexis Davis (7-6) taking on Sarah Kaufman (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Davis at 1030 versus Kaufman at 915. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kaufman throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kaufman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sarah Kaufman over Alexis Davis. We're leaning Kaufman here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 35% for Davis, but our model sees only 31%. That 4-point gap favoring Kaufman is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Chad Laprise (6-3) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9).

Barberena carries a modest Elo edge (960 to 927), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Laprise's striker game against Barberena's all-rounder approach. Laprise brings a versatile approach, while Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Laprise is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Laprise has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Laprise over Bryan Barberena. The model is firm on this one: Laprise at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4) taking on David Michaud (1-1).

Aubin-Mercier is rated at 1070 — 184 points above Michaud's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Michaud throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Michaud is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Aubin-Mercier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over David Michaud. The model is firm on this one: Aubin-Mercier at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Aubin-Mercier at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Nordine Taleb (7-4) taking on Chris Clements (2-1). Taleb is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Clements carries a modest Elo edge (1031 to 976), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clements throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nordine Taleb over Chris Clements. We're leaning Taleb here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Taleb at 69% implied while our model sees 75% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Valerie Letourneau (3-2) taking on Jessica Rakoczy (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Letourneau at 918 versus Rakoczy at 831. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Letourneau throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakoczy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Letourneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valerie Letourneau over Jessica Rakoczy. We're leaning Letourneau here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Letourneau at 60% implied while our model sees 70% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Randa Markos (6-10-1) taking on Aisling Daly (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Daly at 1055 versus Markos at 974. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Daly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randa Markos over Aisling Daly. The model gives Markos a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 71% for Markos, but our model sees only 61%. That 10-point gap favoring Daly is worth watching.