UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Saturday, March 21, 2015·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil·12 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
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Main Card
WelterweightMISS
Demian Maia won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Maia 36%64% LaFlare
Over/UnderOver 72%
Under 28%Over 72%
LEANMarket: 45% (-8.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +36(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors LaFlare)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors LaFlare)
WelterweightHIT
Erick Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 80%20% Koscheck
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 81% (-1.4% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +91(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Koscheck)
LightweightHIT
Leonardo Santos won by Submission (R2)
Santos 56%44% Martin
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +227(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Martin)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nunes 94%6% Baszler
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+14.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +130(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Nunes)
LightweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Submission (R3)
Burns 89%11% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +235(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Burns)
FeatherweightMISS
Godofredo Pepey won by Submission (R1)
Pepey 19%81% Fili
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 26% (-7.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -199(favors Fili)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Fili)
Prelims
LightweightMISS
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 47%53% Arreola
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-18.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +6(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Arreola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Arreola)
FeatherweightHIT
Edimilson Souza won by KO/TKO (R1)
Souza 76%24% Kikuno
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +170(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Kikuno)
Lightweight
Silva 61%39% Dober
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 58% (+3.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -180(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Silva)
LightweightHIT
Leonardo Mafra won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mafra 61%39% Carrizosa
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 60% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -41(favors Carrizosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Mafra)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Carrizosa)
LightweightHIT
Christos Giagos won by Submission (R1)
Giagos 80%20% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 64% (+15.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +84(favors Giagos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Oliveira)
FlyweightMISS
Fredy Serrano won by KO/TKO (R3)
Serrano 45%55% Syler
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-12.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Syler)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Syler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Syler)