UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Anthony Pettis (10-9). Pettis is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 230 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pettis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pettis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Rafael Dos Anjos. The model gives Pettis a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Carla Esparza (10-5). Jedrzejczyk is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Esparza at 1274 versus Jedrzejczyk at 1192. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Jedrzejczyk is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Esparza throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.6 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Carla Esparza. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jedrzejczyk at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Jedrzejczyk at 40% implied while our model sees 51% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Matt Brown (16-13). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 1201 versus Hendricks at 1068. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Hendricks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Hendricks the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Matt Brown. The model is firm on this one: Hendricks at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Hendricks at 77% implied while our model sees 82% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Roy Nelson (9-9). Overeem is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 283 points above Nelson's 1129. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Roy Nelson. The model is firm on this one: Overeem at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Overeem at 65% implied while our model sees 82% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-5) taking on Chris Cariaso (7-5).

Cejudo is rated at 1416 — 485 points above Cariaso's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cejudo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cariaso looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cariaso the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Cejudo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henry Cejudo over Chris Cariaso. The model is firm on this one: Cejudo at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Sam Stout (9-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pearson at 849 versus Stout at 756. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pearson's striker game against Stout's all-rounder approach. Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Stout is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Sam Stout. The model is firm on this one: Pearson at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Pearson at 77% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Elias Theodorou (8-2) taking on Roger Narvaez (1-1).

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 354 points above Narvaez's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Theodorou throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Theodorou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Narvaez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Roger Narvaez. The model is firm on this one: Theodorou at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Theodorou at 75% implied while our model sees 84% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Daron Cruickshank (6-5).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 557 points above Cruickshank's 879. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dariush is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cruickshank is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cruickshank the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruickshank throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Cruickshank has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Daron Cruickshank. The model gives Dariush a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 42% implied while our model sees 55% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Rosholt (6-1) taking on Josh Copeland (0-1).

Rosholt is rated at 1186 — 323 points above Copeland's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rosholt rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosholt throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosholt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Josh Copeland. The model is firm on this one: Rosholt at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Rosholt at 73% implied while our model sees 88% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Ryan Benoit (3-5) taking on Sergio Pettis (8-5).

Pettis is rated at 1235 — 424 points above Benoit's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Benoit's all-rounder game against Pettis's striker approach. Benoit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pettis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Ryan Benoit. The model is firm on this one: Pettis at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Duffy (4-3) taking on Jake Lindsey (0-2).

Duffy is rated at 958 — 234 points above Lindsey's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lindsey throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lindsey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Duffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Duffy over Jake Lindsey. The model gives Duffy a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Germaine de Randamie (7-2) taking on Larissa Pacheco (0-1).

Randamie is rated at 1341 — 552 points above Pacheco's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Randamie throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pacheco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Randamie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Larissa Pacheco over Germaine de Randamie. The model gives Pacheco a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Randamie at 42% implied while our model sees 45% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.