UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Sunday, February 22, 2015·Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil·11 fights
Model: 4/11(36%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Frank Mir won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mir 34%66% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (+4.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -89(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Mir)
LightweightHIT
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 55%45% Barboza
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 38% (+17.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Johnson)
MiddleweightMISS
Sam Alvey won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alvey 29%71% Ferreira
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 24% (+4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Ferreira)
LightweightMISS
Adriano Martins won by Decision - Split (R3)
Martins 24%76% Khabilov
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 18% (+6.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Khabilov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Martins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.8(favors Khabilov)
BantamweightHIT
Frankie Saenz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Saenz 64%36% Alcantara
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 11% (+52.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -224(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Saenz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Saenz)
WelterweightMISS
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ponzinibbio 34%66% Strickland
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-1.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -195(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Strickland)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Marion Reneau won by Submission (R1)
Reneau 54%46% Andrade
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UPMarket: 30% (+24.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -116(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Andrade)
WelterweightMISS
Matt Dwyer won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dwyer 31%69% Macario
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 23% (+8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -43(favors Macario)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.1(favors Macario)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Macario)
FeatherweightMISS
Mike de la Torre won by KO/TKO (R1)
Torre 42%58% Silva
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -162(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Torre)
BantamweightMISS
Douglas Silva de Andrade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Andrade 42%58% Gibson
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 31% (+11.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -54(favors Gibson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Gibson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Gibson)
LightweightHIT
Ivan Jorge won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jorge 75%25% Shockley
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+6.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +133(favors Jorge)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Jorge)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Jorge)