UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Sunday, February 22, 2015·Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
Model Record: 2/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Frank Mir won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mir 30%70% Silva
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (+0.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Mir)
LightweightMISS
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 47%53% Barboza
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+9.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Johnson)
MiddleweightMISS
Sam Alvey won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alvey 21%79% Ferreira
STRONGMarket: 24% (-3.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Ferreira)
LightweightMISS
Adriano Martins won by Decision - Split (R3)
Martins 18%82% Khabilov
STRONGMarket: 18% (+0.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -74(favors Khabilov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Martins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.8(favors Khabilov)
BantamweightHIT
Frankie Saenz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Saenz 53%47% Alcantara
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -222(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Saenz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Saenz)
WelterweightMISS
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ponzinibbio 21%79% Strickland
STRONGMarket: 35% (-13.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Strickland)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Marion Reneau won by Submission (R1)
Reneau 39%61% Andrade
LEANMarket: 30% (+9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Andrade)
WelterweightMISS
Matt Dwyer won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dwyer 29%71% Macario
CONFIDENTMarket: 23% (+6.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -33(favors Macario)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.1(favors Macario)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Macario)
FeatherweightMISS
Mike de la Torre won by KO/TKO (R1)
Torre 41%59% Silva
LEAN
→Elo gap: -118(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Torre)
BantamweightMISS
Douglas Silva de Andrade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Andrade 33%67% Gibson
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (+2.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Gibson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Gibson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Gibson)
LightweightHIT
Ivan Jorge won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jorge 73%27% Shockley
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +93(favors Jorge)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Jorge)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Jorge)