UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Brandon Thatch (2-3). Thatch is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1507 — 645 points above Thatch's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Henderson's all-rounder game against Thatch's striker approach. Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thatch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thatch throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Thatch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Thatch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Thatch over Benson Henderson. The model gives Thatch a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 1006 points above Miller's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Cole Miller. The model is firm on this one: Holloway at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 79% implied while our model sees 89% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Kiichi Kunimoto (3-1). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 246 points above Kunimoto's 1025. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Kiichi Kunimoto. The model is firm on this one: Magny at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 83% implied while our model sees 93% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-3) taking on Patrick Walsh (1-0).

Kelly carries a modest Elo edge (1052 to 1008), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Walsh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Walsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Kelly over Patrick Walsh. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kelly at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Kelly at 38% implied while our model sees 53% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on Michel Prazeres (10-3). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Lee carries a modest Elo edge (1197 to 1157), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Michel Prazeres. The model is firm on this one: Lee at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 58% implied while our model sees 82% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Ray Borg (7-4) taking on Chris Kelades (2-1). Kelades is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Borg is rated at 1172 — 196 points above Kelades's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelades throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Borg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ray Borg over Chris Kelades. The model is firm on this one: Borg at 80%. The market implies 87% for Borg, but our model sees only 80%. That 7-point gap favoring Kelades is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Efrain Escudero (5-6) taking on Rodrigo de Lima (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Escudero at 941 versus Lima at 819. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Escudero throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Escudero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodrigo de Lima over Efrain Escudero. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lima at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (7-3) taking on Jim Alers (1-1).

Skelly is rated at 1251 — 369 points above Alers's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alers throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Skelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chas Skelly over Jim Alers. We're leaning Skelly here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Zach Makovsky (3-3) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11). Elliott is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 246 points above Makovsky's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Makovsky's striker game against Elliott's wrestler approach. Makovsky brings a versatile approach, while Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Elliott over Zach Makovsky. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elliott at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features James Moontasri (2-3) taking on Cody Pfister (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moontasri at 984 versus Pfister at 840. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moontasri throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pfister is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pfister has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Moontasri over Cody Pfister. We're leaning Moontasri here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.