UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
Saturday, February 14, 2015·Broomfield, Colorado, USA·10 fights
Model: 8/10(80%)
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Main Card
WelterweightMISS
Benson Henderson won by Submission (R4)
Henderson 43%57% Thatch
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEANMarket: 43% (+0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Thatch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Thatch)
FeatherweightHIT
Max Holloway won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holloway 87%13% Miller
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+8.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +273(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Miller)
WelterweightHIT
Neil Magny won by Submission (R3)
Magny 93%7% Kunimoto
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+9.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +65(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Magny)
MiddleweightHIT
Daniel Kelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kelly 66%34% Walsh
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (+27.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +76(favors Kelly)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Walsh)
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 78%22% Prazeres
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 58% (+20.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Prazeres)
FlyweightHIT
Ray Borg won by Submission (R3)
Borg 78%22% Kelades
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 87% (-9.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -67(favors Kelades)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Kelades)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Borg)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Efrain Escudero won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Escudero 61%39% Lima
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +74(favors Escudero)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Escudero)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Lima)
FeatherweightHIT
Chas Skelly won by KO/TKO (R2)
Skelly 54%46% Alers
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 67% (-13.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +11(favors Skelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Alers)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Skelly)
FlyweightMISS
Zach Makovsky won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Makovsky 43%57% Elliott
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 51% (-7.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Makovsky)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Elliott)
LightweightHIT
James Moontasri won by Submission (R2)
Moontasri 67%33% Pfister
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -102(favors Pfister)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Moontasri)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pfister)