UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Daniel Cormier (11-2). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 12-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 326 points above Cormier's 1835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Daniel Cormier. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Jones at 60% implied while our model sees 78% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Myles Jury (8-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jury at 1141 versus Cerrone at 1054. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's knockout artist game against Jury's wrestler approach. Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jury looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Myles Jury. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cerrone at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Cerrone, but our model sees only 53%. That 10-point gap favoring Jury is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Marquardt at 1064 versus Tavares at 925. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Marquardt's wrestler approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Marquardt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Nate Marquardt. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Tavares at 45% implied while our model sees 60% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1) taking on Louis Gaudinot (1-2).

Horiguchi is rated at 1528 — 630 points above Gaudinot's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horiguchi throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Horiguchi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Horiguchi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi over Louis Gaudinot. The model is firm on this one: Horiguchi at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Horiguchi at 85% implied while our model sees 89% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Hector Lombard (3-7) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11).

Lombard is rated at 964 — 221 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lombard's striker game against Burkman's wrestler approach. Lombard brings a versatile approach, while Burkman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lombard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Burkman over Hector Lombard. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Burkman at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-5) taking on Danny Castillo (7-6).

Felder is rated at 1363 — 412 points above Castillo's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Castillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Castillo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Castillo over Paul Felder. We're leaning Castillo here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Felder, but our model sees only 27%. That 7-point gap favoring Castillo is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Marcus Brimage (4-3). Brimage will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garbrandt is rated at 1155 — 348 points above Brimage's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brimage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Marcus Brimage. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garbrandt at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Garbrandt at 37% implied while our model sees 53% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shawn Jordan (6-3) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8).

Cannonier is rated at 1426 — 262 points above Jordan's 1164. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jordan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jordan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shawn Jordan over Jared Cannonier. We're leaning Jordan here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jordan at 67% implied while our model sees 72% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Rodrigo Damm (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Dunham.

Dunham is rated at 1019 — 161 points above Damm's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Damm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Dunham over Rodrigo Damm. The model is firm on this one: Dunham at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Dunham at 82% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Mats Nilsson (0-1).

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 418 points above Nilsson's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nilsson throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Nilsson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Mats Nilsson. The model is firm on this one: Akhmedov at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Akhmedov at 60% implied while our model sees 80% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Marion Reneau (5-6-1) taking on Alexis Dufresne (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Reneau at 878, Dufresne at 850. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dufresne throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dufresne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexis Dufresne over Marion Reneau. We're leaning Dufresne here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Reneau, but our model sees only 29%. That 7-point gap favoring Dufresne is worth watching.