UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Saturday, December 20, 2014·Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightMISS
Lyoto Machida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Machida 48%52% Dollaway
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +233(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Dollaway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Dollaway)
BantamweightHIT
Renan Barao won by Submission (R3)
Barao 83%17% Gagnon
STRONGMarket: 86% (-2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Gagnon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Gagnon)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Patrick Cummins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cummins 49%51% Junior
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-12.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +52(favors Cummins)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Cummins)
LightweightMISS
Rashid Magomedov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Magomedov 43%57% Silverio
LEANMarket: 60% (-16.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -58(favors Silverio)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Silverio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Silverio)
WelterweightHIT
Erick Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 77%23% Rhodes
STRONGMarket: 77% (-0.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +330(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Rhodes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Rhodes)
MiddleweightHIT
Daniel Sarafian won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sarafian 56%44% Santos
LEAN
→Elo gap: -98(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Sarafian)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Sarafian)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lima 72%28% Pokrajac
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-3.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +282(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: +18.9(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Pokrajac)
FeatherweightHIT
Renato Moicano won by Submission (R2)
Moicano 56%44% Niinimaki
LEANMarket: 48% (+7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +168(favors Moicano)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Niinimaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Niinimaki)
FeatherweightHIT
Hacran Dias won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dias 63%37% Elkins
LEANMarket: 64% (-1.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -234(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Dias)
BantamweightMISS
Leandro Issa won by Submission (R2)
Issa 23%77% Sasaki
STRONGMarket: 20% (+3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -107(favors Sasaki)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Sasaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Issa)
WelterweightHIT
Tim Means won by Decision - Split (R3)
Means 58%42% Junior
LEAN
→Elo gap: +137(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Means)
MiddleweightMISS
Vitor Miranda won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miranda 40%60% Collier
LEANMarket: 38% (+1.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Collier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Miranda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Collier)