UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on CB Dollaway (11-8).

Machida is rated at 1493 — 528 points above Dollaway's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dollaway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dollaway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Lyoto Machida. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dollaway at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Renan Barao (9-7) taking on Mitch Gagnon (4-3). Barao will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gagnon at 955 versus Barao at 821. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gagnon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gagnon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gagnon throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gagnon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gagnon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Mitch Gagnon. The model is firm on this one: Barao at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Cummins (6-6) taking on Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4). Junior will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Junior is rated at 1144 — 277 points above Cummins's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cummins's striker game against Junior's wrestler approach. Cummins brings a versatile approach, while Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Patrick Cummins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Junior at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Cummins, but our model sees only 49%. That 12-point gap favoring Junior is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rashid Magomedov (4-1) taking on Elias Silverio (3-1). Silverio is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Magomedov is rated at 1374 — 402 points above Silverio's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silverio throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Silverio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Silverio over Rashid Magomedov. The model gives Silverio a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Magomedov, but our model sees only 43%. That 16-point gap favoring Silverio is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Erick Silva (7-7) taking on Mike Rhodes (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 951 versus Rhodes at 829. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rhodes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rhodes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Rhodes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erick Silva over Mike Rhodes. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Sarafian (2-3) taking on Antonio Dos Santos (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sarafian at 888 versus Santos at 749. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sarafian throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sarafian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Sarafian over Antonio Dos Santos. The model gives Sarafian a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-7).

Lima is rated at 1275 — 511 points above Pokrajac's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 18.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Pokrajac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Igor Pokrajac. We're leaning Lima here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Lima, but our model sees only 72%. That 3-point gap favoring Pokrajac is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Tom Niinimaki (1-2). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 771 points above Niinimaki's 771. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Niinimaki throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Niinimaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Tom Niinimaki. The model gives Moicano a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moicano at 48% implied while our model sees 56% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Hacran Dias (3-4) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10). Elkins is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Elkins at 1113 versus Dias at 980. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dias is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hacran Dias over Darren Elkins. The model gives Dias a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Leandro Issa (2-2) taking on Yuta Sasaki (4-4). Sasaki is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Issa at 987, Sasaki at 1009. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sasaki throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Issa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Sasaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yuta Sasaki over Leandro Issa. The model is firm on this one: Sasaki at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Issa at 20% implied while our model sees 23% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Marcio Alexandre Junior (0-2).

Means carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 815), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Marcio Alexandre Junior. The model gives Means a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Miranda (3-3) taking on Jake Collier (5-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Miranda at 933 versus Collier at 794. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Miranda's striker game against Collier's all-rounder approach. Miranda brings a versatile approach, while Collier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miranda throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Collier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Collier over Vitor Miranda. The model gives Collier a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.