UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
Saturday, December 6, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Robbie Lawler won by Decision - Split (R5)
Lawler 33%67% Hendricks
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-1.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -165(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Hendricks)
LightweightHIT
Anthony Pettis won by Submission (R2)
Pettis 70%30% Melendez
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +524(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Melendez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Pettis)
HeavyweightHIT
Travis Browne won by KO/TKO (R1)
Browne 66%34% Schaub
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-8.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +270(favors Browne)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Browne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Schaub)
HeavyweightHIT
Todd Duffee won by KO/TKO (R1)
Duffee 64%36% Hamilton
LEANMarket: 74% (-9.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +130(favors Duffee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.5(favors Hamilton)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R2)
Ferguson 78%22% Trujillo
STRONGMarket: 69% (+9.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Trujillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Trujillo)
BantamweightHIT
Urijah Faber won by Submission (R2)
Faber 83%17% Rivera
STRONGMarket: 80% (+2.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +230(favors Faber)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Faber)
MiddleweightMISS
Josh Samman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Samman 44%56% Gordon
LEANMarket: 40% (+4.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: -13.7(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gordon)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Corey Anderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anderson 85%15% Jones
STRONGMarket: 74% (+10.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +128(favors Anderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +23.6(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +29.5(favors Anderson)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Raquel Pennington won by Submission (R1)
Pennington 45%55% Evans-Smith
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+8.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Evans-Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.4(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Pennington)
BantamweightHIT
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 77%23% Hobar
STRONGMarket: 74% (+3.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +98(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Hobar)
FeatherweightHIT
Clay Collard won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Collard 53%47% White
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -17(favors White)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Collard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Collard)