UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-11-1) taking on Cub Swanson (15-10). Swanson is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edgar carries a modest Elo edge (1361 to 1323), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Edgar's all-rounder game against Swanson's striker approach. Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Swanson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Cub Swanson. We're leaning Edgar here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-14) taking on King Green (15-12-1). Barboza will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Green carries a modest Elo edge (1371 to 1310), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Barboza's knockout artist game against Green's all-rounder approach. Barboza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edson Barboza over King Green. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barboza at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Chico Camus (3-4) taking on Brad Pickett (5-9).

Camus carries a modest Elo edge (977 to 938), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Camus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Pickett over Chico Camus. The model gives Pickett a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Camus at 33% implied while our model sees 38% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-8) taking on Jared Rosholt (6-2). Oleinik will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rosholt carries a modest Elo edge (1256 to 1176), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Rosholt has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleinik throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Aleksei Oleinik. The model is firm on this one: Rosholt at 77%. The market implies 33% for Oleinik, but our model sees only 23%. That 10-point gap favoring Rosholt is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-6) taking on Dustin Ortiz (8-6).

Benavidez carries a modest Elo edge (1420 to 1384), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Ortiz has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Benavidez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Ortiz brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Benavidez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Dustin Ortiz. The model is firm on this one: Benavidez at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Benavidez at 77% implied while our model sees 84% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-8) taking on Isaac Vallie-Flagg (1-3).

Wiman carries a modest Elo edge (995 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vallie-Flagg throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Wiman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Wiman over Isaac Vallie-Flagg. We're leaning Wiman here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ruslan Magomedov (3-0) taking on Josh Copeland (0-2).

Magomedov is rated at 1373 — 547 points above Copeland's 826. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Copeland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Copeland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ruslan Magomedov over Josh Copeland. The model is firm on this one: Magomedov at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Magomedov at 66% implied while our model sees 78% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Roger Narvaez (1-2) taking on Luke Barnatt (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barnatt at 1057 versus Narvaez at 917. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnatt throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barnatt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Barnatt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Barnatt over Roger Narvaez. The model is firm on this one: Barnatt at 86%. The market implies 27% for Narvaez, but our model sees only 14%. That 13-point gap favoring Barnatt is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-5) taking on Nick Hein (4-4). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Vick is rated at 1186 — 341 points above Hein's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vick's all-rounder game against Hein's striker approach. Vick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hein brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Hein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Vick over Nick Hein. We're leaning Vick here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Akbarh Arreola (1-3) taking on Yves Edwards (10-10).

Edwards carries a modest Elo edge (913 to 860), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Arreola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Akbarh Arreola over Yves Edwards. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Arreola at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Arreola at 36% implied while our model sees 51% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Paige VanZant (5-4) taking on Kailin Curran (1-6).

VanZant is rated at 1071 — 353 points above Curran's 718. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: VanZant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Curran looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Curran the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curran throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Curran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Curran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paige VanZant over Kailin Curran. The model gives VanZant a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Dooho Choi (5-3-1) taking on Juan Manuel Puig (0-2).

Choi is rated at 1361 — 602 points above Puig's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Puig throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Puig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Juan Manuel Puig over Dooho Choi. The model gives Puig a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.