UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Rockhold (6-5) taking on Michael Bisping (20-9). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bisping is rated at 1615 — 196 points above Rockhold's 1419. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rockhold's all-rounder game against Bisping's striker approach. Rockhold is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bisping brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rockhold has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Rockhold over Michael Bisping. The model is firm on this one: Rockhold at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Rockhold at 79% implied while our model sees 84% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-6) taking on Ross Pearson (12-13).

Iaquinta is rated at 1361 — 402 points above Pearson's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Iaquinta's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Iaquinta is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Iaquinta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Al Iaquinta over Ross Pearson. The model gives Iaquinta a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Iaquinta at 40% implied while our model sees 64% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-7) taking on Clint Hester (4-3). Hester is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Whittaker is rated at 1722 — 776 points above Hester's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hester is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hester has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clint Hester over Robert Whittaker. The model gives Hester a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Whittaker at 37% implied while our model sees 40% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Soa Palelei (4-3) taking on Walt Harris (6-9). Palelei will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Harris is rated at 1273 — 159 points above Palelei's 1114. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palelei throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Palelei is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Soa Palelei over Walt Harris. We're leaning Palelei here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Palelei at 59% implied while our model sees 72% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-8) taking on Vagner Rocha (1-3).

Matthews is rated at 1398 — 569 points above Rocha's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Vagner Rocha. The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 77% implied while our model sees 90% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Perosh (5-7) taking on Guto Inocente (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Perosh at 929 versus Inocente at 835. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Inocente has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Guto Inocente over Anthony Perosh. The model gives Inocente a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-13-1) taking on Dylan Andrews (2-3).

Alvey is rated at 862 — 169 points above Andrews's 693. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Andrews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Dylan Andrews. We're leaning Alvey here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Alvey at 39% implied while our model sees 66% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-9) taking on Richie Vaculik (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smolka.

Smolka is rated at 951 — 299 points above Vaculik's 653. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vaculik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Smolka over Richie Vaculik. The model is firm on this one: Smolka at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Smolka at 75% implied while our model sees 80% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Clements (2-2) taking on Vik Grujic (1-3). Grujic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Clements is rated at 1075 — 362 points above Grujic's 713. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clements throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Grujic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Clements has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Clements over Vik Grujic. The model gives Clements a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Clements at 44% implied while our model sees 62% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-4) taking on Luke Zachrich (1-2). Zachrich is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Kelly is rated at 1127 — 250 points above Zachrich's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zachrich throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Zachrich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Zachrich over Daniel Kelly. We're leaning Zachrich here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kelly at 27% implied while our model sees 33% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marcus Brimage (4-4) taking on Jumabieke Tuerxun (0-3).

Brimage is rated at 787 — 169 points above Tuerxun's 618. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brimage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Tuerxun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcus Brimage over Jumabieke Tuerxun. The model is firm on this one: Brimage at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Brimage at 82% implied while our model sees 92% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.