UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Saturday, January 11, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's StrawweightMISS
Mackenzie Dern won by Submission (R3)
Dern 43%57% Ribas
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Ribas)
WelterweightMISS
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ponzinibbio 45%55% Harris
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Harris)
MiddleweightHIT
Cesar Almeida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almeida 56%44% Alhassan
LEAN
→Elo gap: +56(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Alhassan)
MiddleweightHIT
Roman Kopylov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kopylov 59%41% Curtis
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -87(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Kopylov)
FeatherweightHIT
Christian Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 64%36% Bashi
LEAN
→Elo gap: +140(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Rodriguez)
WelterweightMISS
Punahele Soriano won by KO/TKO (R1)
Soriano 44%56% Medic
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -329(favors Medic)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Soriano)
FlyweightMISS
Felipe Bunes won by Submission (R1)
Bunes 40%60% Johnson
LEAN
→Elo gap: -89(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Bunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Bunes)
MiddleweightMISS
Marco Tulio won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tulio 40%60% Potieria
LEAN
→Elo gap: +80(favors Tulio)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Potieria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Potieria)
LightweightHIT
Thiago Moises won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moises 55%45% Ogden
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Ogden)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Ogden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Moises)
WelterweightMISS
Jacobe Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 45%55% Parsons
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +9(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Parsons)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Parsons)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Ernesta Kareckaite won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kareckaite 73%27% Caliari
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -85(favors Caliari)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Kareckaite)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Kareckaite)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Bruno Lopes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lopes 32%68% Gadzhiyasulov
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -55(favors Gadzhiyasulov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Gadzhiyasulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.0(favors Gadzhiyasulov)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Fatima Kline won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kline 56%44% Dudakova
LEAN
→Elo gap: -29(favors Dudakova)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Dudakova)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Dudakova)
LightweightHIT
Nurullo Aliev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aliev 59%41% Solecki
LEAN
→Elo gap: -24(favors Solecki)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Solecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Aliev)