UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Saturday, September 27, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 9/11(82%)
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Main Card
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Submission (R2)
Johnson 73%27% Cariaso
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +433(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Johnson)
LightweightHIT
Donald Cerrone won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerrone 79%21% Alvarez
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONG
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +643(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Cerrone)
FeatherweightHIT
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R1)
McGregor 63%37% Poirier
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors McGregor)
MiddleweightHIT
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R3)
Romero 56%44% Kennedy
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +112(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Romero)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Romero)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Cat Zingano won by KO/TKO (R3)
Zingano 48%52% Nunes
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -99(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.3(favors Nunes)
Prelims
BantamweightMISS
Dominick Cruz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cruz 48%52% Mizugaki
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Mizugaki)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Mizugaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Cruz)
LightweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Masvidal 73%27% Krause
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +59(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Masvidal)
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Thompson 71%29% Cote
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +281(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Thompson)
WelterweightHIT
Brian Ebersole won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ebersole 55%45% Howard
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +199(favors Ebersole)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ebersole)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Howard)
Early Prelims
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 72%28% Tuck
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -180(favors Tuck)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Tuck)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Lee)
BantamweightHIT
Manvel Gamburyan won by Submission (R2)
Gamburyan 58%42% Gibson
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -194(favors Gibson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Gamburyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Gibson)