UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Saturday, September 27, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Submission (R2)
Johnson 73%27% Cariaso
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +381(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Johnson)
LightweightHIT
Donald Cerrone won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerrone 77%23% Alvarez
STRONG
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +623(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Cerrone)
FeatherweightHIT
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R1)
McGregor 57%43% Poirier
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -97(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors McGregor)
MiddleweightHIT
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R3)
Romero 53%47% Kennedy
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +81(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Romero)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Romero)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Cat Zingano won by KO/TKO (R3)
Zingano 42%58% Nunes
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.3(favors Nunes)
BantamweightMISS
Dominick Cruz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cruz 39%61% Mizugaki
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -153(favors Mizugaki)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Mizugaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Cruz)
LightweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Masvidal 70%30% Krause
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Masvidal)
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Thompson 68%32% Cote
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +181(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Thompson)
WelterweightHIT
Brian Ebersole won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ebersole 51%49% Howard
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Ebersole)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ebersole)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Howard)
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 67%33% Tuck
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Tuck)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Tuck)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Lee)
BantamweightHIT
Manvel Gamburyan won by Submission (R2)
Gamburyan 50%50% Gibson
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -124(favors Gibson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Gamburyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Gibson)