UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Saturday, December 14, 2024·Tampa, Florida, USA·13 fights
Model: 10/13(77%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Joaquin Buckley won by KO/TKO (R3)
Buckley 76%24% Covington
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 65% (+10.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -189(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Buckley)
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by KO/TKO (R3)
Swanson 52%48% Quarantillo
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+14.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Swanson)
FlyweightHIT
Manel Kape won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kape 55%45% Silva
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -83(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Kape)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Silva)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Dustin Jacoby won by KO/TKO (R3)
Jacoby 26%74% Petrino
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (-0.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Petrino)
BantamweightHIT
Daniel Marcos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Marcos 69%31% Yanez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+0.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Marcos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Yanez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Marcos)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Navajo Stirling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stirling 88%12% Tokkos
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
STRONGMarket: 88% (+0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +166(favors Stirling)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Tokkos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tokkos)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Michael Johnson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Johnson 73%27% Azaitar
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +280(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Azaitar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Johnson)
LightweightHIT
Joel Alvarez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alvarez 87%13% Klose
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+6.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Klose)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Klose)
FeatherweightHIT
Sean Woodson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Woodson 60%40% Padilla
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 59% (+0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +130(favors Woodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Padilla)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Woodson)
FeatherweightHIT
Felipe Lima won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lima 72%28% Johns
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -6(favors Johns)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Lima)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Maverick won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Maverick 91%9% Horth
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
STRONGMarket: 86% (+5.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +240(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Maverick)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Maverick)
BantamweightMISS
Davey Grant won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grant 42%58% Taveras
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 49% (-6.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +211(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Grant)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Piera Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 45%55% Knutsson
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -193(favors Knutsson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Knutsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Rodriguez)