UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Saturday, December 14, 2024·Tampa, Florida, USA
Model Record: 10/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Joaquin Buckley won by KO/TKO (R3)
Buckley 67%33% Covington
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -139(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Buckley)
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by KO/TKO (R3)
Swanson 60%40% Quarantillo
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Swanson)
FlyweightHIT
Manel Kape won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kape 56%44% Silva
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -101(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Kape)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Silva)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Dustin Jacoby won by KO/TKO (R3)
Jacoby 36%64% Petrino
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Petrino)
BantamweightHIT
Daniel Marcos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Marcos 53%47% Yanez
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Marcos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Yanez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Marcos)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Navajo Stirling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stirling 56%44% Tokkos
LEAN
→Elo gap: +111(favors Stirling)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Tokkos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tokkos)
LightweightHIT
Michael Johnson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Johnson 61%39% Azaitar
LEAN
→Elo gap: +157(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Azaitar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Johnson)
LightweightHIT
Joel Alvarez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alvarez 61%39% Klose
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Klose)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Klose)
FeatherweightHIT
Sean Woodson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Woodson 58%42% Padilla
LEAN
→Elo gap: +186(favors Woodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Padilla)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Woodson)
FeatherweightMISS
Felipe Lima won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lima 47%53% Johns
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -77(favors Johns)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Lima)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Maverick won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Maverick 70%30% Horth
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +229(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Maverick)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Maverick)
BantamweightMISS
Davey Grant won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grant 44%56% Taveras
LEAN
→Elo gap: +142(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Grant)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Piera Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 51%49% Knutsson
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -113(favors Knutsson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Knutsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Rodriguez)