UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ronda Rousey (6-1) taking on Sara McMann (6-6).

Rousey carries a modest Elo edge (1203 to 1158), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Rousey's knockout artist game against McMann's wrestler approach. Rousey is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while McMann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rousey throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Rousey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Sara McMann. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rousey at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Patrick Cummins (6-6). Cummins is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cormier is rated at 1835 — 969 points above Cummins's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cormier's all-rounder game against Cummins's striker approach. Cormier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cummins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cormier throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Patrick Cummins. We're leaning Cormier here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on Demian Maia (22-10). MacDonald will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: MacDonald at 1465 versus Maia at 1371. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: MacDonald is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Demian Maia. The model gives MacDonald a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on TJ Waldburger (4-3).

Waldburger is rated at 1008 — 176 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Waldburger is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Pyle the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyle throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Waldburger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Waldburger over Mike Pyle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Waldburger at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Robert Whittaker (17-6).

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 200 points above Thompson's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thompson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Robert Whittaker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thompson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alexis Davis (7-6) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9).

Davis carries a modest Elo edge (1030 to 950), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Davis's all-rounder game against Eye's striker approach. Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Eye brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eye throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexis Davis over Jessica Eye. The model gives Davis a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Munhoz at 1211 versus Assuncao at 1099. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Pedro Munhoz. We're leaning Assuncao here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Cody Gibson (3-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gibson.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 840 points above Gibson's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gibson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gibson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gibson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Cody Gibson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sterling at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Zach Makovsky (3-3) taking on Josh Sampo (1-2).

Makovsky is rated at 996 — 164 points above Sampo's 832. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sampo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Makovsky is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Sampo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zach Makovsky over Josh Sampo. The model gives Makovsky a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Erik Koch (4-5) taking on Rafaello Oliveira (2-5).

Koch is rated at 1017 — 199 points above Oliveira's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Koch is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erik Koch over Rafaello Oliveira. We're leaning Koch here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Ernest Chavez (1-1) taking on Yosdenis Cedeno (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Chavez at 895, Cedeno at 880. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cedeno throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cedeno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cedeno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yosdenis Cedeno over Ernest Chavez. The model gives Cedeno a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.