UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Saturday, November 16, 2024·New York City, New York, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Jon Jones won by KO/TKO (R3)
Jones 71%29% Miocic
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +183(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Miocic)
LightweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Oliveira 57%43% Chandler
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +407(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Chandler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Chandler)
MiddleweightHIT
Bo Nickal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nickal 68%32% Craig
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Nickal)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Viviane Araujo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Araujo 40%60% Silva
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -170(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Silva)
Catch WeightHIT
Mauricio Ruffy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ruffy 58%42% Llontop
LEAN
→Elo gap: +295(favors Ruffy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Llontop)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Llontop)
BantamweightMISS
Marcus McGhee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McGhee 31%69% Martinez
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -277(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors McGhee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors McGhee)
LightweightHIT
Jim Miller won by Submission (R1)
Miller 53%47% Jackson
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Jackson)
LightweightHIT
David Onama won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Onama 56%44% Romero
LEAN
→Elo gap: +249(favors Onama)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Onama)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Onama)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by KO/TKO (R2)
Tybura 58%42% Diniz
LEAN
→Elo gap: +138(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Diniz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Tybura)
WelterweightHIT
Ramiz Brahimaj won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brahimaj 66%34% Gall
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Brahimaj)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Gall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Brahimaj)
WelterweightHIT
Oban Elliott won by KO/TKO (R3)
Elliott 71%29% Hafez
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +90(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Hafez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Hafez)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Eduarda Moura won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moura 49%51% Hardy
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -171(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Moura)