UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Stipe Miocic (14-4). Jones will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 315 points above Miocic's 1847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jones's all-rounder game against Miocic's striker approach. Jones is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miocic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Stipe Miocic. We're leaning Jones here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight championship matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Michael Chandler (2-4). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 527 points above Chandler's 1319. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Chandler is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chandler throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Chandler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Chandler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Michael Chandler. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Bo Nickal (4-1) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1).

Nickal is rated at 1320 — 275 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nickal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Nickal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bo Nickal over Paul Craig. We're leaning Nickal here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Viviane Araujo (7-5) taking on Karine Silva (5-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Araujo at 1207, Silva at 1237. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Araujo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Araujo throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Araujo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karine Silva over Viviane Araujo. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Mauricio Ruffy (3-1) taking on James Llontop (0-2).

Ruffy is rated at 1462 — 644 points above Llontop's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Llontop throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Llontop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ruffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mauricio Ruffy over James Llontop. The model gives Ruffy a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marcus McGhee (4-0) taking on Jonathan Martinez (10-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McGhee at 1329, Martinez at 1343. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. McGhee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGhee throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McGhee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McGhee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Marcus McGhee. We're leaning Martinez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Damon Jackson (6-5-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jackson.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 174 points above Jackson's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miller's knockout artist game against Jackson's wrestler approach. Miller is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jackson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Damon Jackson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features David Onama (6-2) taking on Roberto Romero (0-1). Onama is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Onama is rated at 1311 — 515 points above Romero's 795. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Onama rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Onama throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Onama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Onama over Roberto Romero. The model gives Onama a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Jhonata Diniz (3-1).

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 211 points above Diniz's 1031. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diniz throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Diniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Jhonata Diniz. The model gives Tybura a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3) taking on Mickey Gall (6-6). Gall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Brahimaj is rated at 1144 — 384 points above Gall's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brahimaj rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gall throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brahimaj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Gall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj over Mickey Gall. We're leaning Brahimaj here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Oban Elliott (3-1) taking on Bassil Hafez (1-1).

Elliott carries a modest Elo edge (997 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hafez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hafez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oban Elliott over Bassil Hafez. We're leaning Elliott here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Eduarda Moura (3-1) taking on Veronica Hardy (4-5). Moura is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Moura carries a modest Elo edge (1142 to 1091), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Moura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Veronica Hardy over Eduarda Moura. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hardy at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.