UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Wednesday, November 6, 2013·Fort Campbell, Kentucky, USA·13 fights
Model: 10/12(83%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Tim Kennedy won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kennedy 53%47% Natal
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -150(favors Natal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Kennedy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Natal)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Alexis Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 55%45% Carmouche
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Carmouche)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Carmouche)
MiddleweightMISS
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R3)
Romero 30%70% Markes
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -217(favors Markes)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.5(favors Romero)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Markes)
LightweightHIT
Rustam Khabilov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Khabilov 70%30% Masvidal
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -109(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Khabilov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +15.2(favors Khabilov)
LightweightHIT
Michael Chiesa won by Submission (R2)
Chiesa 66%34% Smith
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +129(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Chiesa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Smith)
LightweightHIT
King Green won by KO/TKO (R1)
Green 53%47% Krause
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Green)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Francisco Rivera won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rivera 57%43% Roop
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +157(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Roop)
FeatherweightHIT
Dennis Bermudez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bermudez 57%43% Siler
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Siler)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Bermudez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Bermudez)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nunes 73%27% Randamie
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Randamie)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +14.1(favors Nunes)
MiddleweightHIT
Lorenz Larkin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Larkin 57%43% Camozzi
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Camozzi)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Camozzi)
Lightweight
Edwards 29%71% Medeiros
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -257(favors Medeiros)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Edwards)
WelterweightMISS
Seth Baczynski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Baczynski 38%62% Magny
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +166(favors Baczynski)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Magny)
MiddleweightHIT
Derek Brunson won by Submission (R1)
Brunson 74%26% Houston
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +215(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Brunson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Brunson)