UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Ryan Bader (14-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Teixeira at 1596, Bader at 1619. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bader is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Teixeira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Ryan Bader. The model gives Teixeira a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-6) taking on Yushin Okami (14-6). Okami will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Souza at 1187 versus Okami at 1061. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Souza's all-rounder game against Okami's striker approach. Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Okami brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Okami throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Jacare Souza. We're leaning Okami here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Jussier Formiga (9-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Benavidez at 1291 versus Formiga at 1149. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Benavidez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Formiga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Formiga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Jussier Formiga. The model gives Benavidez a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Piotr Hallmann (2-3) taking on Francisco Trinaldo (18-7).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 447 points above Hallmann's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hallmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hallmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Hallmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Piotr Hallmann. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Trinaldo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-6-1) taking on Tor Troeng (1-2).

Natal carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 862), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Troeng is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Troeng has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tor Troeng over Rafael Natal. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Troeng at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Ali Bagautinov (4-2) taking on Marcos Vinicius (1-1).

Bagautinov is rated at 1188 — 315 points above Vinicius's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vinicius throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Vinicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bagautinov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcos Vinicius over Ali Bagautinov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vinicius at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Edimilson Souza (3-0) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-5-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Souza.

Souza is rated at 1166 — 241 points above Arantes's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Souza rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arantes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Edimilson Souza. The model gives Arantes a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Lucas Martins (3-3) taking on Ramiro Hernandez (0-1).

Martins is rated at 1095 — 243 points above Hernandez's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martins throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucas Martins over Ramiro Hernandez. The model gives Martins a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Elias Silverio (3-1) taking on Joao Zeferino (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silverio at 972 versus Zeferino at 870. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zeferino throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Zeferino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silverio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joao Zeferino over Elias Silverio. We're leaning Zeferino here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Ivan Jorge (2-1) taking on Keith Wisniewski (0-3).

Jorge is rated at 926 — 174 points above Wisniewski's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wisniewski throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wisniewski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Jorge has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keith Wisniewski over Ivan Jorge. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wisniewski at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Spencer (3-4) taking on Yuri Villefort (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Spencer at 862, Villefort at 842. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villefort throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Villefort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Villefort has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yuri Villefort over Sean Spencer. The model gives Villefort a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.