UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Benson Henderson (10-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pettis at 1512, Henderson at 1507. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benson Henderson over Anthony Pettis. The model gives Henderson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Josh Barnett (6-3) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).

Barnett is rated at 1454 — 202 points above Mir's 1252. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barnett's knockout artist game against Mir's wrestler approach. Barnett is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Mir looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Barnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Barnett over Frank Mir. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barnett at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-4) taking on Clay Guida (18-18). Guida will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mendes is rated at 1377 — 451 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mendes's striker game against Guida's wrestler approach. Mendes brings a versatile approach, while Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Mendes over Clay Guida. We're leaning Mendes here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-7) taking on Brandon Vera (8-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rothwell at 1080 versus Vera at 945. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Rothwell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rothwell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Rothwell over Brandon Vera. The model gives Rothwell a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Erik Koch (4-5).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 664 points above Koch's 1017. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Poirier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Koch is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Erik Koch. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Jamie Varner (3-5).

Tibau is rated at 1019 — 245 points above Varner's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Varner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Tibau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varner throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Varner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Jamie Varner. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Louis Gaudinot (1-2). Elliott is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 344 points above Gaudinot's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Elliott over Louis Gaudinot. The model is firm on this one: Elliott at 79%.

The Welterweight matchup features Hyun Gyu Lim (3-3) taking on Pascal Krauss (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Krauss at 980 versus Lim at 875. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lim throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Krauss is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Krauss has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pascal Krauss over Hyun Gyu Lim. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krauss at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chico Camus (3-3) taking on Kyung Ho Kang (8-4). Kang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Kang carries a modest Elo edge (1029 to 952), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camus throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Camus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang over Chico Camus. The model gives Kang a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Soa Palelei (4-2) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9). Palelei will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 391 points above Palelei's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Palelei's striker game against Krylov's submission artist approach. Palelei brings a versatile approach, while Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palelei throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Palelei is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Krylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Soa Palelei. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krylov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-5) taking on Ryan Couture (0-1). Couture will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Iaquinta is rated at 1195 — 351 points above Couture's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Couture over Al Iaquinta. The model gives Couture a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Magnus Cedenblad (4-1) taking on Jared Hamman (2-4). Cedenblad is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cedenblad is rated at 1063 — 329 points above Hamman's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cedenblad rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Cedenblad's wrestler game against Hamman's striker approach. Cedenblad looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hamman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamman throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hamman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magnus Cedenblad over Jared Hamman. The model gives Cedenblad a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.