UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Saturday, August 31, 2013·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
Anthony Pettis won by Submission (R1)
Pettis 49%51% Henderson
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -128(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Henderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Pettis)
HeavyweightHIT
Josh Barnett won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barnett 60%40% Mir
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +233(favors Barnett)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Mir)
FeatherweightHIT
Chad Mendes won by KO/TKO (R3)
Mendes 68%32% Guida
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +98(favors Mendes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Mendes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Mendes)
HeavyweightHIT
Ben Rothwell won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rothwell 56%44% Vera
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Rothwell)
FeatherweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Poirier 64%36% Koch
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Poirier)
Prelims
LightweightMISS
Gleison Tibau won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tibau 45%55% Varner
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Varner)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Varner)
FlyweightHIT
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 77%23% Gaudinot
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONG
→Elo gap: -66(favors Gaudinot)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Elliott)
WelterweightMISS
Hyun Gyu Lim won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lim 25%75% Krauss
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +88(favors Lim)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Lim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Krauss)
BantamweightMISS
Chico Camus won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Camus 43%57% Kang
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Kang)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Camus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Kang)
Early Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Soa Palelei won by KO/TKO (R3)
Palelei 50%50% Krylov
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Palelei)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Palelei)
LightweightHIT
Al Iaquinta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Iaquinta 54%46% Couture
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -94(favors Couture)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Couture)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Couture)
MiddleweightHIT
Magnus Cedenblad won by Submission (R1)
Cedenblad 52%48% Hamman
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +53(favors Cedenblad)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Hamman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Hamman)