UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-7-2) taking on Amir Albazi (5-2). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moreno carries a modest Elo edge (1417 to 1342), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Albazi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Albazi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Albazi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Albazi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Amir Albazi. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Erin Blanchfield (8-1) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-7).

Blanchfield is rated at 1727 — 185 points above Namajunas's 1542. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Blanchfield looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Blanchfield the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanchfield throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erin Blanchfield over Rose Namajunas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blanchfield at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Blanchfield, but our model sees only 53%. That 5-point gap favoring Namajunas is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brendson Ribeiro (2-5) taking on Caio Machado (0-3). Ribeiro will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ribeiro is rated at 901 — 165 points above Machado's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machado throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Machado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Machado over Brendson Ribeiro. The model gives Machado a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-3) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-8).

Jasudavicius is rated at 1427 — 337 points above Silva's 1091. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jasudavicius looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Jasudavicius the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva. We're leaning Jasudavicius here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Dustin Stoltzfus (3-7) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-10).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Stoltzfus at 1071, Barriault at 1051. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Stoltzfus looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoltzfus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Stoltzfus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Dustin Stoltzfus. The model gives Barriault a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Stoltzfus at 31% implied while our model sees 38% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Malott (6-1) taking on Trevin Giles (7-7).

Malott is rated at 1498 — 569 points above Giles's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Malott rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giles throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Malott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Malott over Trevin Giles. We're leaning Malott here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Malott, but our model sees only 70%. That 6-point gap favoring Giles is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (8-2) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-10). Zahabi is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Zahabi is rated at 1673 — 303 points above Munhoz's 1369. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Zahabi's striker game against Munhoz's all-rounder approach. Zahabi brings a versatile approach, while Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Zahabi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aiemann Zahabi over Pedro Munhoz. We're leaning Zahabi here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (8-7-1) taking on Victor Henry (4-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jourdain at 1344 versus Henry at 1242. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jourdain is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Victor Henry over Charles Jourdain. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Henry at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (8-3-1) taking on Jack Shore (6-3).

Zalal is rated at 1551 — 421 points above Shore's 1130. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Zalal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Shore is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zalal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shore throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Shore over Youssef Zalal. The model gives Shore a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (7-3) taking on Rodrigo Nascimento (4-3). Nascimento will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Romanov is rated at 1429 — 216 points above Nascimento's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Romanov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Romanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Romanov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Serhiy Sidey (2-1) taking on Garrett Armfield (2-3). Sidey is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sidey is rated at 1206 — 280 points above Armfield's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Armfield throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Armfield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sidey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Garrett Armfield over Serhiy Sidey. The model gives Armfield a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Gibson (3-7) taking on Chad Anheliger (2-3). Gibson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gibson at 862, Anheliger at 885. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gibson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Anheliger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gibson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Gibson over Chad Anheliger. The model gives Gibson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jamey-Lyn Horth (4-2) taking on Ivana Petrovic (1-3). Petrovic will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Horth is rated at 1191 — 510 points above Petrovic's 682. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horth throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Horth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ivana Petrovic over Jamey-Lyn Horth. The model gives Petrovic a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.