UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ronda Rousey (6-2) taking on Liz Carmouche (5-5).

Rousey is rated at 1307 — 182 points above Carmouche's 1125. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rousey is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Carmouche looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Carmouche the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carmouche throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carmouche has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Liz Carmouche. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rousey at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (16-8) taking on Dan Henderson (9-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Machida at 1596 versus Henderson at 1468. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Dan Henderson. We're leaning Machida here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-7) taking on Ivan Menjivar (4-5). Faber will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Faber is rated at 1433 — 475 points above Menjivar's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menjivar throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ivan Menjivar over Urijah Faber. The model gives Menjivar a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-13) taking on Josh Neer (6-9). McGee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

McGee is rated at 1111 — 156 points above Neer's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Neer is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving McGee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Josh Neer. We're leaning McGee here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (15-10) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-10).

Lawler is rated at 1418 — 304 points above Koscheck's 1114. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against Koscheck's all-rounder approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Josh Koscheck. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lawler at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-5) taking on Lavar Johnson (2-2). Johnson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Schaub is rated at 1225 — 209 points above Johnson's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Schaub is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Lavar Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Schaub at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (15-7) taking on Anton Kuivanen (1-2). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1566 — 687 points above Kuivanen's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiesa throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Kuivanen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Anton Kuivanen. We're leaning Chiesa here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (10-7) taking on Matt Grice (2-5). Grice is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bermudez is rated at 1173 — 390 points above Grice's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Grice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Matt Grice. The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-11) taking on Caros Fodor (0-1). Fodor will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fodor carries a modest Elo edge (944 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Fodor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Stout over Caros Fodor. We're leaning Stout here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Kenny Robertson (4-5) taking on Brock Jardine (0-2).

Robertson is rated at 1118 — 345 points above Jardine's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jardine is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenny Robertson over Brock Jardine. The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-13) taking on Jon Manley (0-1).

Magny is rated at 1418 — 546 points above Manley's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Manley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Manley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Manley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Manley over Neil Magny. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Manley at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Nah-Shon Burrell (1-1) taking on Yuri Villefort (0-2).

Burrell is rated at 964 — 197 points above Villefort's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villefort throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Villefort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Villefort has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yuri Villefort over Nah-Shon Burrell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Villefort at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.