UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit lands on Saturday, November 17, 2012 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada with 12 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georges St-Pierre vs Carlos ConditWelterweight | Georges St-Pierre | Confident | 73% |
| Johny Hendricks vs Martin KampmannWelterweight | Johny Hendricks | Confident | 66% |
| Francis Carmont vs Tom LawlorMiddleweight | Francis Carmont | Lean | 59% |
| Rafael Dos Anjos vs Mark BocekLightweight | Rafael Dos Anjos | Lean | 56% |
| Pablo Garza vs Mark HominickFeatherweight | Mark Hominick | Toss-up | 50% |
| Patrick Cote vs Alessio SakaraMiddleweight | Patrick Cote | Lean | 57% |
| Cyrille Diabate vs Chad GriggsLight Heavyweight | Cyrille Diabate | Confident | 66% |
| John Makdessi vs Sam StoutLightweight | Sam Stout | Lean | 56% |
| Antonio Carvalho vs Rodrigo DammFeatherweight | Antonio Carvalho | Toss-up | 52% |
| Matthew Riddle vs John MaguireWelterweight | Matthew Riddle | Lean | 60% |
| Ivan Menjivar vs Azamat GashimovBantamweight | Ivan Menjivar | Confident | 67% |
| Darren Elkins vs Steven SilerFeatherweight | Darren Elkins | Lean | 58% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Georges St-Pierre vs Carlos Condit
The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Condit.
St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 856 points above Condit's 1165. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.
The style clash matters here: St-Pierre looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving St-Pierre the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Carlos Condit. We're leaning St-Pierre here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Johny Hendricks vs Martin Kampmann
The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Martin Kampmann (11-5). Kampmann is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 289 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Kampmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Martin Kampmann. We're leaning Hendricks here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Francis Carmont vs Tom Lawlor
The Middleweight matchup features Francis Carmont (6-2) taking on Tom Lawlor (6-4). Carmont is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Lawlor carries a modest Elo edge (1205 to 1167), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Carmont is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lawlor looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lawlor the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lawlor throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lawlor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Francis Carmont over Tom Lawlor. The model gives Carmont a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Mark Bocek
The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Mark Bocek (7-5). Bocek will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.
Anjos carries a modest Elo edge (1282 to 1230), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bocek looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bocek the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bocek throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Mark Bocek. The model gives Anjos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Pablo Garza vs Mark Hominick
The Featherweight matchup features Pablo Garza (3-2) taking on Mark Hominick (3-3). Garza is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Garza at 938 versus Hominick at 842. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Garza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hominick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Garza the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hominick throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hominick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hominick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mark Hominick over Pablo Garza. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hominick at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Patrick Cote vs Alessio Sakara
The Middleweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-10) taking on Alessio Sakara (6-7). Cote will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Cote is rated at 1221 — 290 points above Sakara's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Cote's all-rounder game against Sakara's striker approach. Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sakara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cote is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sakara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Patrick Cote over Alessio Sakara. The model gives Cote a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Cyrille Diabate vs Chad Griggs
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Cyrille Diabate (4-3) taking on Chad Griggs (0-1). Diabate is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 8-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Diabate at 862, Griggs at 884. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Diabate throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Diabate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Diabate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cyrille Diabate over Chad Griggs. We're leaning Diabate here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
John Makdessi vs Sam Stout
The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Sam Stout (9-10).
Makdessi is rated at 989 — 233 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Makdessi's striker game against Stout's all-rounder approach. Makdessi brings a versatile approach, while Stout is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sam Stout over John Makdessi. The model gives Stout a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Antonio Carvalho vs Rodrigo Damm
The Featherweight matchup features Antonio Carvalho (2-1) taking on Rodrigo Damm (3-3).
Carvalho is rated at 1084 — 226 points above Damm's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Damm throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Damm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carvalho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Antonio Carvalho over Rodrigo Damm. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carvalho at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Matthew Riddle vs John Maguire
The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Riddle (7-3) taking on John Maguire (2-2). Riddle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
Riddle is rated at 1158 — 261 points above Maguire's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maguire is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Maguire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matthew Riddle over John Maguire. The model gives Riddle a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Ivan Menjivar vs Azamat Gashimov
The Bantamweight matchup features Ivan Menjivar (4-4) taking on Azamat Gashimov (0-1).
Menjivar carries a modest Elo edge (895 to 816), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Menjivar throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Menjivar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gashimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ivan Menjivar over Azamat Gashimov. We're leaning Menjivar here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Darren Elkins vs Steven Siler
The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Steven Siler (5-3).
Elkins is rated at 1113 — 225 points above Siler's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Siler throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Darren Elkins over Steven Siler. The model gives Elkins a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.