UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
Saturday, October 13, 2012·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Anderson Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 72%28% Bonnar
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +734(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Bonnar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Bonnar)
HeavyweightMISS
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira won by Submission (R2)
Nogueira 49%51% Herman
Over/UnderUnder 67%
Under 67%Over 33%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +426(favors Nogueira)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Herman)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Glover Teixeira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Teixeira 54%46% Maldonado
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +269(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Teixeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Maldonado)
WelterweightHIT
Jon Fitch won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fitch 63%37% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Fitch)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Fitch)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Phil Davis won by Submission (R2)
Davis 81%19% Prado
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +446(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Davis)
Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Demian Maia won by Submission (R1)
Maia 46%54% Story
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Story)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Story)
FeatherweightHIT
Rony Jason won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jason 65%35% Sicilia
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Sicilia)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Sicilia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sicilia)
LightweightHIT
Gleison Tibau won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tibau 70%30% Trinaldo
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Trinaldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Tibau)
FeatherweightHIT
Diego Brandao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brandao 68%32% Gambino
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +109(favors Brandao)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Brandao)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Brandao)
Early Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Sergio Moraes won by Submission (R3)
Moraes 49%51% Forte
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -128(favors Forte)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Forte)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Camozzi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Camozzi 72%28% Cane
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +198(favors Camozzi)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Cane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cane)
LightweightHIT
Cristiano Marcello won by Decision - Split (R3)
Marcello 58%42% Madadi
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -357(favors Madadi)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Marcello)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.0(favors Madadi)