UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Antonio Silva (3-6-1) taking on Travis Browne (9-6-1). Silva will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Browne is rated at 1131 — 200 points above Silva's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Browne's all-rounder approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Browne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browne throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Browne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Travis Browne over Antonio Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Browne at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on Jay Hieron (0-3). Hieron is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ellenberger at 847 versus Hieron at 746. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ellenberger throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hieron is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.3 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Jay Hieron. The model is firm on this one: Ellenberger at 78%.

The Flyweight matchup features John Dodson (10-6) taking on Jussier Formiga (9-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dodson at 1256 versus Formiga at 1149. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Formiga's wrestler approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Dodson over Jussier Formiga. We're leaning Dodson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Justin Edwards (2-4) taking on Josh Neer (6-8).

Neer carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 798), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neer throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Neer over Justin Edwards. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Neer at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Danny Castillo (7-6).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 294 points above Castillo's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Danny Castillo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-4) taking on Aaron Simpson (7-3). Simpson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pierce carries a modest Elo edge (1171 to 1097), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Pierce is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Simpson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Simpson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Pierce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Pierce over Aaron Simpson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pierce at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Marcus LeVesseur (1-1) taking on Carlo Prater (1-1). Prater is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Prater carries a modest Elo edge (869 to 833), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. LeVesseur throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. LeVesseur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.7 more per 15 minutes. LeVesseur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcus LeVesseur over Carlo Prater. The model gives LeVesseur a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jacob Volkmann (6-3) taking on Shane Roller (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Volkmann at 1028 versus Roller at 914. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roller throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Roller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacob Volkmann over Shane Roller. We're leaning Volkmann here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Nunes (3-2) taking on Bart Palaszewski (1-2). Palaszewski is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nunes is rated at 1047 — 184 points above Palaszewski's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Nunes over Bart Palaszewski. The model gives Nunes a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Darren Uyenoyama (2-1) taking on Phil Harris (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Uyenoyama at 961 versus Harris at 840. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Uyenoyama throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Uyenoyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Harris over Darren Uyenoyama. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Harris at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.