UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on Michel Pereira (9-5).

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 490 points above Pereira's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hernandez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pereira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hernandez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.6 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Michel Pereira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Kyler Phillips (6-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Font at 1361 versus Phillips at 1238. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Rob Font. We're leaning Phillips here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (7-5) taking on Sumudaerji (4-4).

Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (1097 to 1054), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Johnson's all-rounder game against Sumudaerji's striker approach. Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sumudaerji brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Johnson over Sumudaerji. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cameron Smotherman (1-1) taking on Jake Hadley (3-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Smotherman at 967, Hadley at 967. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hadley throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hadley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smotherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hadley over Cameron Smotherman. The model gives Hadley a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7). Elkins is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Elkins at 1113 versus Pineda at 979. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Daniel Pineda. We're leaning Elkins here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Asu Almabayev (5-1) taking on Matheus Nicolau (7-3).

Almabayev is rated at 1349 — 315 points above Nicolau's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Almabayev's wrestler game against Nicolau's knockout artist approach. Almabayev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nicolau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nicolau throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Almabayev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Asu Almabayev over Matheus Nicolau. We're leaning Almabayev here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jean Matsumoto (3-1) taking on Brad Katona (4-4). Matsumoto will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Matsumoto is rated at 1200 — 361 points above Katona's 838. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Katona throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Matsumoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Matsumoto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jean Matsumoto over Brad Katona. The model is firm on this one: Matsumoto at 78%.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (7-4) taking on Tamires Vidal (1-2). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 536 points above Vidal's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Vidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Tamires Vidal. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Edwards at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Elise Reed (4-4) taking on Jessica Penne (3-5). Penne is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Reed at 933 versus Penne at 803. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Reed's striker game against Penne's all-rounder approach. Reed brings a versatile approach, while Penne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penne throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Penne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Penne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elise Reed over Jessica Penne. The model gives Reed a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Melissa Martinez (1-1) taking on Alice Ardelean (1-2). Martinez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ardelean at 968 versus Martinez at 885. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ardelean throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ardelean is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ardelean has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melissa Martinez over Alice Ardelean. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martinez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Austen Lane (1-3) taking on Robelis Despaigne (1-1). Despaigne will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Despaigne at 884 versus Lane at 783. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lane throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Despaigne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robelis Despaigne over Austen Lane. The model gives Despaigne a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.