UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Mark Munoz (8-6). Weidman is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Weidman at 1060, Munoz at 1082. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Weidman over Mark Munoz. We're leaning Weidman here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Te Huna (5-4) taking on Joey Beltran (3-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Huna at 843, Beltran at 815. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Huna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Te Huna over Joey Beltran. The model is firm on this one: Huna at 77%.

The Welterweight matchup features Aaron Simpson (7-3) taking on Kenny Robertson (4-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Simpson at 1097, Robertson at 1097. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Simpson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aaron Simpson over Kenny Robertson. We're leaning Simpson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Francis Carmont (6-2) taking on Karlos Vemola (2-3). Carmont is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Carmont is rated at 1167 — 327 points above Vemola's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Carmont is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Vemola looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Vemola the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carmont throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Carmont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francis Carmont over Karlos Vemola. We're leaning Carmont here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Vaughan Lee (3-4).

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 690 points above Lee's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Vaughan Lee. The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Anthony Njokuani (3-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 310 points above Njokuani's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Anthony Njokuani. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Anjos at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Damacio Page (0-2). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 534 points above Page's 698. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Page is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Page has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Damacio Page. We're leaning Caceres here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Chris Cariaso (7-5) taking on Josh Ferguson (0-1).

Cariaso carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 859), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cariaso throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cariaso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Cariaso over Josh Ferguson. The model gives Cariaso a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Andrew Craig (3-3) taking on Rafael Natal (9-6-1).

Natal carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 852), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Craig's striker game against Natal's wrestler approach. Craig brings a versatile approach, while Natal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Natal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrew Craig over Rafael Natal. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Craig at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Marcelo Guimaraes (2-1) taking on Dan Stittgen (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Guimaraes at 931 versus Stittgen at 828. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stittgen throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stittgen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Guimaraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcelo Guimaraes over Dan Stittgen. The model gives Guimaraes a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Issei Tamura (1-1). Assuncao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Assuncao is rated at 1099 — 219 points above Tamura's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Issei Tamura. The model gives Assuncao a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.