UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

Maynard carries a modest Elo edge (975 to 926), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Maynard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maynard throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Gray Maynard. The model gives Guida a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-7). Stout is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fisher at 876 versus Stout at 756. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Stout over Spencer Fisher. We're leaning Stout here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Brian Ebersole (5-2) taking on TJ Waldburger (4-3).

Ebersole carries a modest Elo edge (1065 to 1008), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Ebersole's striker game against Waldburger's submission artist approach. Ebersole brings a versatile approach, while Waldburger is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Waldburger throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Waldburger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Ebersole has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Waldburger over Brian Ebersole. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Waldburger at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12).

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 406 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Cub Swanson. The model gives Pearson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Hatsu Hioki (3-4). Hioki is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lamas is rated at 1285 — 410 points above Hioki's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hioki throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Lamas over Hatsu Hioki. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lamas at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ramsey Nijem (5-4) taking on CJ Keith (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nijem at 944 versus Keith at 815. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nijem throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Keith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over CJ Keith. We're leaning Nijem here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Brock Jardine (0-1).

Story is rated at 1358 — 519 points above Jardine's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rick Story over Brock Jardine. The model is firm on this one: Story at 80%.

The Featherweight matchup features Steven Siler (5-3) taking on Joey Gambino (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Siler at 888, Gambino at 883. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siler throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Siler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gambino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steven Siler over Joey Gambino. The model is firm on this one: Siler at 79%.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-9) taking on Nick Catone (3-4). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Camozzi at 986, Catone at 1004. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Catone looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Catone the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Catone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Catone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Nick Catone. The model gives Camozzi a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Luis Ramos (0-1).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 366 points above Ramos's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Luis Ramos. The model is firm on this one: Brown at 81%.

The Welterweight matchup features Dan Miller (6-6) taking on Ricardo Funch (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Miller.

There's a real Elo separation here: Miller at 886 versus Funch at 773. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Miller over Ricardo Funch. We're leaning Miller here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ken Stone (2-1) taking on Dustin Pague (1-4). Pague will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Stone is rated at 959 — 203 points above Pague's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stone throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Stone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Stone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Pague over Ken Stone. The model gives Pague a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.