UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).

Mir carries a modest Elo edge (1252 to 1191), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Mir's submission artist approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Frank Mir. We're leaning Santos here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Antonio Silva (3-6-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 657 points above Silva's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Velasquez's submission artist game against Silva's striker approach. Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Antonio Silva. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 85%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Dave Herman (1-3). Herman is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1129 — 281 points above Herman's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Herman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roy Nelson over Dave Herman. We're leaning Nelson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Shane del Rosario (0-1).

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 1013 points above Rosario's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Rosario has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Shane del Rosario. The model is firm on this one: Miocic at 82%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Lavar Johnson (2-1). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1026 versus Struve at 878. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 7.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lavar Johnson over Stefan Struve. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Diego Brandao (6-3). Elkins is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Elkins at 1113, Brandao at 1131. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brandao is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brandao throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brandao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Brandao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Diego Brandao. We're leaning Elkins here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jamie Varner (3-5) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Barboza is rated at 1142 — 368 points above Varner's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Varner's wrestler game against Barboza's striker approach. Varner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barboza brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Varner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.8 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edson Barboza over Jamie Varner. The model gives Barboza a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Jason Miller (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dollaway at 965 versus Miller at 851. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Jason Miller. The model is firm on this one: Dollaway at 79%.

The Welterweight matchup features Dan Hardy (5-4) taking on Duane Ludwig (4-4). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 1262 — 409 points above Ludwig's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hardy's wrestler game against Ludwig's striker approach. Hardy looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ludwig brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ludwig throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ludwig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ludwig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hardy over Duane Ludwig. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hardy at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Sass (3-1) taking on Jacob Volkmann (6-3). Sass is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sass carries a modest Elo edge (1099 to 1028), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkmann throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Sass has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacob Volkmann over Paul Sass. The model gives Volkmann a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Kyle Kingsbury (4-4). Kingsbury is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 761 points above Kingsbury's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's wrestler game against Kingsbury's striker approach. Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kingsbury brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kingsbury throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kingsbury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Glover Teixeira. We're leaning Kingsbury here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Mike Brown (2-3) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Brown at 982, Pineda at 979. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Brown's striker game against Pineda's wrestler approach. Brown brings a versatile approach, while Pineda looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pineda throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Brown over Daniel Pineda. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.