UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
Saturday, May 26, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Junior Dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 73%27% Mir
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +300(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Mir)
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Velasquez 85%15% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
STRONG
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +629(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.8(favors Velasquez)
HeavyweightHIT
Roy Nelson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nelson 60%40% Herman
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +182(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Herman)
HeavyweightHIT
Stipe Miocic won by KO/TKO (R2)
Miocic 81%19% Rosario
Over/UnderUnder 66%
Under 66%Over 34%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +361(favors Miocic)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Miocic)
HeavyweightMISS
Stefan Struve won by Submission (R1)
Struve 42%58% Johnson
Over/UnderUnder 67%
Under 67%Over 33%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +14(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Struve)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Darren Elkins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elkins 66%34% Brandao
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +53(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Brandao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Brandao)
LightweightHIT
Jamie Varner won by KO/TKO (R1)
Varner 57%43% Barboza
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -347(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.8(favors Varner)
MiddleweightHIT
CB Dollaway won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dollaway 75%25% Miller
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +83(favors Dollaway)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Dollaway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Dollaway)
WelterweightHIT
Dan Hardy won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hardy 61%39% Ludwig
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.1(favors Ludwig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ludwig)
Early Prelims
LightweightMISS
Paul Sass won by Submission (R1)
Sass 33%67% Volkmann
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -73(favors Volkmann)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Volkmann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.6(favors Volkmann)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Glover Teixeira won by Submission (R1)
Teixeira 35%65% Kingsbury
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -209(favors Kingsbury)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Kingsbury)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Kingsbury)
FeatherweightHIT
Mike Brown won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brown 61%39% Pineda
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -423(favors Pineda)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Pineda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Pineda)