UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
Saturday, May 5, 2012·East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Nate Diaz won by Submission (R2)
Diaz 65%35% Miller
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -79(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Miller)
WelterweightHIT
Johny Hendricks won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hendricks 70%30% Koscheck
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +16(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Hendricks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Hendricks)
MiddleweightHIT
Alan Belcher won by KO/TKO (R1)
Belcher 67%33% Palhares
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Palhares)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Belcher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Palhares)
HeavyweightHIT
Lavar Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 68%32% Barry
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +29(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +12.0(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Barry)
LightweightMISS
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 29%71% Ferguson
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -223(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Ferguson)
FlyweightHIT
John Dodson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dodson 52%48% Elliott
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Dodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Elliott)
WelterweightHIT
John Hathaway won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hathaway 68%32% Krauss
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +145(favors Hathaway)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Hathaway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Krauss)
FlyweightMISS
Louis Gaudinot won by Submission (R2)
Gaudinot 35%65% Lineker
LEAN
→Elo gap: -128(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Gaudinot)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lineker)
LightweightMISS
Danny Castillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Castillo 47%53% Cholish
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +75(favors Castillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Cholish)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Castillo)
FeatherweightHIT
Dennis Bermudez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bermudez 61%39% Garza
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Garza)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Bermudez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Bermudez)
BantamweightHIT
Roland Delorme won by Submission (R1)
Delorme 68%32% Denis
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +28(favors Delorme)
→Striking volume advantage: -26.5(favors Denis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Delorme)
MiddleweightHIT
Karlos Vemola won by Submission (R2)
Vemola 52%48% Massenzio
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Vemola)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Massenzio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Massenzio)