UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Jim Miller (27-17). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 344 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Diaz over Jim Miller. We're leaning Diaz here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9). Koscheck will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hendricks at 1068 versus Koscheck at 939. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Hendricks is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hendricks the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Josh Koscheck. We're leaning Hendricks here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Alan Belcher (9-5) taking on Rousimar Palhares (7-4). Belcher is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Belcher carries a modest Elo edge (1293 to 1251), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Belcher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Belcher the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Palhares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Palhares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Belcher over Rousimar Palhares. We're leaning Belcher here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Lavar Johnson (2-1) taking on Pat Barry (5-6). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1026 versus Barry at 910. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 12.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Barry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lavar Johnson over Pat Barry. We're leaning Johnson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-8). Ferguson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 180 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Ferguson's all-rounder approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Michael Johnson. We're leaning Ferguson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features John Dodson (10-6) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Elliott.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dodson at 1256, Elliott at 1241. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Elliott's wrestler approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Dodson over Tim Elliott. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dodson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features John Hathaway (7-1) taking on Pascal Krauss (2-1).

Hathaway is rated at 1241 — 261 points above Krauss's 980. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hathaway rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hathaway throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Krauss is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Krauss has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Hathaway over Pascal Krauss. We're leaning Hathaway here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Louis Gaudinot (1-2) taking on John Lineker (12-3). Lineker will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 557 points above Gaudinot's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaudinot throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lineker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lineker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over Louis Gaudinot. The model gives Lineker a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Danny Castillo (7-6) taking on John Cholish (1-1). Cholish is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cholish carries a modest Elo edge (1001 to 951), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cholish throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Cholish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Cholish over Danny Castillo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cholish at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Pablo Garza (3-2). Garza is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bermudez at 1068 versus Garza at 938. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Garza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Pablo Garza. The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Roland Delorme (3-2) taking on Nick Denis (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Denis at 981 versus Delorme at 900. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 26.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Delorme is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Delorme has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roland Delorme over Nick Denis. We're leaning Delorme here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Karlos Vemola (2-3) taking on Mike Massenzio (2-4).

Vemola carries a modest Elo edge (839 to 807), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Massenzio throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Massenzio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Massenzio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karlos Vemola over Mike Massenzio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vemola at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.