UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1). Henderson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1507 — 321 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Benson Henderson. The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Quinton Jackson (7-5).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 323 points above Jackson's 1296. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bader throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Quinton Jackson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bader at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Cheick Kongo (11-5-1). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hunt at 1169, Kongo at 1183. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Mark Hunt. The model gives Kongo a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Shields (4-2) taking on Yoshihiro Akiyama (2-4). Akiyama will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Shields is rated at 1232 — 246 points above Akiyama's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shields's striker game against Akiyama's all-rounder approach. Shields brings a versatile approach, while Akiyama is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akiyama throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Akiyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Shields has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Shields over Yoshihiro Akiyama. The model gives Shields a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Yushin Okami (14-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Boetsch at 1174 versus Okami at 1061. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Boetsch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Okami is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Boetsch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Okami throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Tim Boetsch. The model gives Okami a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Hatsu Hioki (3-4) taking on Bart Palaszewski (1-2). Hioki is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hioki at 875, Palaszewski at 863. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palaszewski throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hioki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Palaszewski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hatsu Hioki over Bart Palaszewski. The model gives Hioki a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12).

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 476 points above Lauzon's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lauzon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Anthony Pettis. The model gives Lauzon a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Takanori Gomi (4-8) taking on Eiji Mitsuoka (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mitsuoka at 823 versus Gomi at 732. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitsuoka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitsuoka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Takanori Gomi over Eiji Mitsuoka. We're leaning Gomi here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vaughan Lee (3-4) taking on Norifumi Yamamoto (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lee at 891 versus Yamamoto at 765. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Yamamoto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vaughan Lee over Norifumi Yamamoto. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Riki Fukuda (2-2) taking on Steve Cantwell (1-4). Cantwell is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Fukuda is rated at 967 — 241 points above Cantwell's 726. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cantwell throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fukuda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Fukuda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Riki Fukuda over Steve Cantwell. We're leaning Fukuda here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Cariaso (7-5) taking on Takeya Mizugaki (8-5). Mizugaki is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Mizugaki carries a modest Elo edge (995 to 931), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Cariaso's all-rounder game against Mizugaki's striker approach. Cariaso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mizugaki brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cariaso throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Mizugaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Cariaso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Takeya Mizugaki over Chris Cariaso. The model gives Mizugaki a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Issei Tamura (1-1) taking on Zhang Tiequan (1-2). Tiequan is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Tamura carries a modest Elo edge (880 to 819), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tiequan throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tiequan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Tiequan over Issei Tamura. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tiequan at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.